{ "generated": "2026-07-31T19:05:55.617Z", "total": 53, "manifests": [ { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-001", "title": "Dissociating Synchronization from Information Integration", "version": "1.1.2", "date": "2026-07-26", "authors": [ "O/0 Research Workspace", "Autonomous investigator (Cursor Opus 4.7)" ], "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "information-integration", "research_status": "completed", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "primary_metric": "raw pairwise mutual information (Miller-Madow, 12 bins) with circular-shuffle null", "secondary_metric": "conditional MI given Kuramoto mean-field phase (8x8x6 bins) with circular-shuffle null", "primary_metric_verdict": "UNSUPPORTED", "secondary_metric_verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE", "secondary_metric_verdict_history": [ { "version": "1.1.1", "verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "note": "At preregistered bins_z=6 with absolute threshold ⟨cond_mi_excess_C⟩ > 0.10 nats." }, { "version": "1.1.2", "verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE", "note": "Downgraded after bin-count robustness sweep. Direction is stable across bins_z ∈ {4,6,8,10} (Cohen's d ∈ [2.4, 4.1]) but the absolute magnitude falls below the preregistered threshold at bins_z ≥ 8." } ], "top_line_verdict": "UNSUPPORTED", "n_confirmatory_runs": 120, "n_sensitivity_runs": 160, "n_noise_robustness_runs": 160, "n_total_runs": 440, "wall_time_seconds": 115.7, "conditions": [ { "id": "A_common_drive", "label": "A · Common drive", "description": "N=32 Kuramoto oscillators, no direct coupling, shared external periodic drive" }, { "id": "B_sparse_coupled", "label": "B · Sparse coupling", "description": "N=32 Kuramoto oscillators, ER(p=0.12) coupling + spanning cycle, no drive" }, { "id": "C_dense_coupled", "label": "C · Dense coupling", "description": "N=32 Kuramoto oscillators, all-to-all coupling, no drive" }, { "id": "D_independent", "label": "D · Independent", "description": "N=32 Kuramoto oscillators, no coupling, no drive (null control)" } ], "parameters": { "N": 32, "T": 4000, "dt": 0.05, "K_baseline": 2, "sigma_baseline": 0.15, "omega_mean": 1, "omega_std": 0.15, "drive_amplitude": 1.2, "drive_freq": 1, "er_p": 0.12, "burn_in": 800 }, "sensitivity_scan": { "K_values": [ 0.5, 1, 2, 4 ], "seeds_per_cell": 10 }, "noise_scan": { "sigma_values": [ 0.05, 0.15, 0.3, 0.5 ], "seeds_per_cell": 10 }, "seed_bands": { "confirmatory": [ 300000, 300029 ], "sensitivity_K": [ 310000, 310009 ], "noise_robustness": [ 320000, 320009 ] }, "source_records": [ "OA-C005" ], "related_records": [ "O0-HYP-001", "O0-INF-002", "O0-BND-006" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "OA-C005", "proposition": "Separation may be functional and emergent rather than fundamental.", "relationship": "inspiration_only", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support." }, "files": { "readme": "README.md", "record": "scientific_record.md", "claim_audit": "claim_audit.md", "literature": "literature_review.md", "research_question": "research_question.md", "hypothesis": "hypothesis.md", "protocol": "protocol.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "formal_model": "formal_model.md", "assumptions": "assumptions.md", "controls": "controls.md", "falsification_criteria": "falsification_criteria.md", "limitations": "limitations.md", "alternative_explanations": "alternative_explanations.md", "replication": "replication.md", "revision_history": "revision_history.md", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "statistics_csv": "results/statistics.csv", "model_comparison_csv": "results/model_comparison.csv", "interpretation_matrix": "results/interpretation_matrix.md", "checksums": "results/checksums.json", "run_manifest": "runs/run_manifest.csv", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.csv", "raw_sensitivity_K": "data/raw/sensitivity_K.csv", "raw_noise_robustness": "data/raw/noise_robustness.csv", "schema": "data/processed/schema.json" }, "figures": [ { "file": "figures/01_scatter_sync_vs_mi.png", "caption": "Per-run scatter: Kuramoto r vs. raw pairwise MI. Conditions A, B, C overlap at high r and high MI — primary dissociation fails." }, { "file": "figures/01b_scatter_sync_vs_cond_mi.png", "caption": "Per-run scatter: r vs. conditional MI given Ψ." }, { "file": "figures/02_condition_bars.png", "caption": "Bar chart of ⟨r⟩ and raw ⟨MI⟩ per condition with 95% CIs." }, { "file": "figures/02b_cond_mi_excess_bars.png", "caption": "Bar chart of ⟨cond_mi_excess⟩ per condition with 95% CIs — the SECONDARY dissociation is visible at bins_z=6 (A ≈ D ≈ 0; B and C elevated). See figure 06 for bin-count sensitivity." }, { "file": "figures/03_mi_observed_vs_null.png", "caption": "Observed raw MI vs. circular-shuffle null per condition." }, { "file": "figures/04_sensitivity_K.png", "caption": "Sensitivity of ⟨r⟩ and ⟨MI⟩ to coupling strength K." }, { "file": "figures/05_noise_robustness.png", "caption": "Robustness of ⟨r⟩ and ⟨MI⟩ to noise σ." }, { "file": "figures/06_bins_z_robustness.png", "caption": "Bin-count robustness of ⟨cond_mi_excess⟩: direction of C > A dissociation is preserved across bins_z ∈ {4,6,8,10}, but absolute magnitude only clears the preregistered 0.10-nat threshold at bins_z ∈ {4,6}. Basis for the secondary-metric verdict downgrade to INCONCLUSIVE." } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-002", "title": "Functional Partitioning vs. Monolithic Prediction under Local-Signal Constraints", "version": "1.0.0-pilot", "date": "2026-07-26", "authors": [ "O/0 Research Workspace", "Autonomous investigator (Cursor Opus 4.7)" ], "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "emergent-boundaries + multiscale-agency", "research_status": "pilot_complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "pilot", "n_seeds": 5, "n_confirmatory_fits": 1125, "n_noise_robustness_fits": 1125, "wall_time_seconds": 733.6, "primary_metric": "held-out test MSE", "primary_metric_verdict": "UNSUPPORTED", "top_line_verdict": "UNSUPPORTED", "verdict_rationale": "Both preregistered adversarial controls won: CE1 (statistical efficiency) dominated at n_train=20000 with d=-17.8 in favor of monolithic; CE2 (convolutional inductive bias) dominated at all n_train values with d=-10.4 in favor of shared-weight conv over locally-partitioned OLS.", "source_records": [ "OA-C001", "OA-C005" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "VII", "proposition": "Functional separation serves evolutionary/practical purposes (local processing, evolution).", "relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Testing the pragmatic-utility half of a philosophical claim. Refutation of the pragmatic version does not refute the metaphysical version." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "claim_audit": "claim_audit.md", "hypothesis": "hypothesis.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "formal_model": "formal_model.md", "assumptions": "assumptions.md", "literature": "literature_review.md", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "pairwise_effects": "results/pairwise_effects.csv", "checksums": "results/checksums.json", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.csv", "raw_noise_robustness": "data/raw/noise_robustness.csv", "xi_calibration": "data/processed/xi_calibration.json" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-003", "title": "Emergent stable spatial partitions in Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "emergent-boundaries", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "n_seeds": 6, "grid": [ 96, 96 ], "T_steps": 12000, "source_records": [ "OA-C005", "OA-C001" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "VI–VII", "proposition": "Separation is functional and emergent rather than fundamental.", "relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Establishing that reaction-diffusion can partition a continuum does not establish that O/0 metaphysics is true." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "stability_curves": "results/stability_curves.npz", "figure": "figures/01_gs_partitions_and_stability.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-004", "title": "Ensemble variance reduction — 1/K scaling under independent additive noise", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "collective-prediction", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "analytically_supported", "physical_validation": "n/a", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "n_trials_per_cell": 5000, "source_records": [ "OA-C001" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "VII", "proposition": "Evolution: competition/cooperation between apparent individuals (justifies functional separation).", "relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Demonstrates one specific quantifiable utility of individuation (noise averaging). Does not thereby validate the metaphysical framing." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_ensemble_1overK.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-005", "title": "Fresh-seed replication of the O0-STUDY-001 conditional-MI direction", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "program": "information-integration", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "fresh_seed_replicated_tier_2", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "FRESH-SEED REPLICATION SUPPORTED (Tier 2)", "n_seeds": 30, "seed_band": [ 400000, 400029 ], "bins_z_values": [ 4, 6, 8 ], "median_d_across_bins": 2.96, "replicates_study": "O0-STUDY-001", "replication_tier": 2, "source_records": [ "OA-C005" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "O0-STUDY-001", "proposition": "The direction of the sync vs. conditional-MI dissociation is a stable feature of the Kuramoto model.", "relationship": "replication", "disclaimer": "Tier-2 replication uses the same code, not an independent implementation. Any shared bug would replicate here too. Tier-3 (reimplementation) is the next step." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-006", "title": "Observer-scale-dependent partition counts in a stochastic field", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "observer-dependent-partitioning", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "n_seeds": 30, "L": 256, "xi_true": 6, "scales": [ 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 ], "frac_non_increasing": 0.967, "source_records": [ "OA-C005" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "V–VI", "proposition": "Where the boundary between things sits is determined by the observer.", "relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Demonstrating that coarse-graining changes apparent cluster counts does not imply that all boundaries are observer-dependent or that reality is unified." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_scale_dependence.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-007", "title": "Kuramoto synchronization phase transition (r vs K)", "version": "1.0.1", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "collective-coordination", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "n_seeds": 15, "K_grid": [ 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3.5, 5, 7 ], "omega_std": 1, "source_records": [ "OA-C005", "O0-STUDY-001" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "II (Bell / non-locality) + §IV (gamma synchrony)", "proposition": "Collective coherence can spontaneously emerge from local interactions.", "relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Kuramoto is a stylized mathematical model. Its phase transition does not imply anything about non-local unity or consciousness." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_kuramoto_transition.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-008", "title": "Common-cause creates spurious pairwise correlation; partial correlation recovers real coupling", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "causal-inference-baselines", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "analytically_supported", "physical_validation": "n/a", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "n_seeds": 20, "source_records": [ "OA-C001", "O0-STUDY-001" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "II (correlation across distance) + general theme", "proposition": "The apparent connectedness between two things may be a signature of a shared underlying source rather than of direct connection.", "relationship": "operationalization + methodological baseline", "disclaimer": "Confirms Reichenbach's principle of the common cause and Pearl's do-calculus in a specific quantitative setting. Does not thereby validate any metaphysical framing of shared underlying sources." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_common_cause_confound.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-009", "title": "Small-world topology accelerates Kuramoto synchronization at matched edge count", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "collective-coordination", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "n_seeds": 12, "N": 32, "K_mid": 2.7, "topologies": [ "ring", "smallworld_p015", "random" ], "source_records": [ "OA-C005", "O0-STUDY-007" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "IV", "proposition": "Coordination in the brain (gamma synchrony) is enabled by specific network structure.", "relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Reproduces a classical result (Watts & Strogatz 1998). The Kuramoto model is not the brain." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_smallworld_sync.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-010", "title": "Can an embedded observer distinguish unified-source from multiple-source universes?", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "source-ontology-identifiability", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_generative_model_study", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "creator_existence_tested": "no", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE (strict preregistered rule) / PRELIMINARY SUPPORT for primary hypothesis in isolation", "n_exploratory_seeds_per_class": 12, "n_confirmatory_seeds_per_class": 30, "n_universe_classes": 6, "two_class_accuracy_UNIFIED_vs_MULTIPLE": 0.915, "shared_law_correctly_MULT": 0.97, "shared_init_correctly_MULT": 1, "central_broadcast_correctly_MULT": 0.73, "concealed_unity_hidden_frac": 0.13, "source_records": [ "OA-C001", "OA-C005", "O0-STUDY-001", "O0-STUDY-008" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "general framing (§I–§II) — 'one being outside time and space thinking reality into existence'", "proposition": "Reality is generated from one all-encompassing source.", "relationship": "operationalization of a narrow testable fragment", "disclaimer": "The study tests whether embedded observers can detect a shared-latent generative structure in a toy linear-Gaussian universe. It does NOT test whether our universe has one source, whether that source is conscious, whether O/0 is true, or any other metaphysical claim. Conceptual provenance is not empirical support." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "config": "configs/baseline.json", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "thresholds_frozen": "results/thresholds_frozen.json", "raw_exploratory": "data/raw/exploratory.csv", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.csv", "figure_distributions": "figures/01_signature_distributions.png", "figure_confusion": "figures/02_classifier_outcomes.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-011", "title": "Period-doubling bifurcations in the logistic map", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "recursive-systems", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "analytically_supported", "physical_validation": "n/a", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "source_records": [ "OA-C005" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "general — recursive self-reference themes", "proposition": "Recursion produces categorically distinct dynamical regimes.", "relationship": "operationalization + textbook baseline", "disclaimer": "Reproduces Feigenbaum (1978). The finding is a mathematical fact about a specific 1D map." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_bifurcation_diagram.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-012", "title": "Ship of Theseus in a linear dynamical system — attractor identity persistence under gradual component perturbation", "version": "1.0.2", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "distributed-identity", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "prior_versions": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "metric": "PC1 (leading eigenvector)", "verdict": "UNSUPPORTED" }, { "version": "1.0.1", "metric": "ACF cosine, eps=1.00 only", "verdict": "UNSUPPORTED" }, { "version": "1.0.2", "metric": "ACF cosine, eps sweep", "verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT" } ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "identity persistence themes", "proposition": "Identity can persist across gradual replacement of the components that constitute it.", "relationship": "operationalization + phase-transition characterization", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. The result concerns a specific linear-Gaussian model class only." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_identity_persistence.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-013", "title": "Two-level predictive-coding hierarchy helps on AR(2), not on white noise", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-26", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "self-models", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "source_records": [ "OA-C005" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "self-model / predictive-coding themes", "proposition": "A system can benefit from modeling its own prediction errors.", "relationship": "controlled analytical baseline", "disclaimer": "The finding is analytically predictable and validates workspace machinery, not a substantive discovery." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "figure": "figures/01_predictive_coding_gain.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-STUDY-014", "title": "Source ontology has an identifiability boundary, and the naming statistic finds it six levels too early", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "source-ontology-identifiability", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_generative_model_study", "replication_status": "internally_unreplicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "creator_existence_tested": "no", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "confirmatory", "follow_up_to": "O0-STUDY-010", "executes": "the NEXT DISCRIMINATING TEST written into O0-STUDY-010's scientific record", "top_line_verdict": "SUPPORT for H_boundary — identifiability boundary located at L8 (per-region delays <= 640 steps, 80x observation noise)", "boundary_level": 8, "boundary_max_delay": 640, "boundary_noise_factor": 80, "highest_identifiable_level": 7, "honest_boundary_range": "L6-L8 depending on statistic; primary preregistered statistic gives L8, the energy-distance omnibus gives L6", "instrument_alive_gate_a_max": 1, "instrument_alive_gate_p": 0, "replication_fidelity_check": "PASSED — CU at L1 is bit-identical to O0-STUDY-010 CONCEALED_UNITY", "determinism_check": "PASSED", "classifier_fitted_here": false, "classifier_source": "research/studies/O0-STUDY-010/results/thresholds_frozen.json", "n_ladder_levels": 10, "n_exploratory_seeds_per_cell": 10, "n_confirmatory_seeds_per_cell": 30, "n_exploratory_realizations": 320, "n_confirmatory_realizations": 960, "n_permutations": 500, "seed_band_exploratory": 4000000, "seed_band_confirmatory": 5000000, "rule_c_fires_at_level": 2, "identifiable_at_level_2_a_max": 1, "divergence_between_naming_and_identifiability_levels": 6, "surviving_signature": "s1_eff_rank", "preregistered_predictions_confirmed": 3, "preregistered_predictions_failed": 1, "failed_prediction": "s2 (cross-region prediction gain) was predicted to survive longest; it collapses by L6 and s1 (effective rank) survives instead", "post_hoc_diagnostics": [ "equal-dimension control (D_shared 6 -> 8): boundary unchanged at L8" ], "protocol_deviations": [ "First pass ran confirmatory on the un-extended L0-L6 ladder because the harness printed but did not gate on the span check; corrected and re-run end to end. Disclosed in scientific_record.md section 6." ], "source_records": [ "O0-STUDY-010", "O0-STUDY-008", "O0-STUDY-001" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "general framing — 'everything is one; separation is functional, not fundamental'", "proposition": "Reality proceeds from one all-encompassing source.", "relationship": "operationalization of a narrow testable fragment — whether an embedded observer could distinguish a unified from a plural origin, and at what point it stops being able to", "disclaimer": "The study locates a detectability boundary in a class of toy linear-Gaussian universes. It does NOT test whether our universe has one source, whether any source is conscious, or whether O/0 is true. Conceptual provenance is not empirical support." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "config": "configs/baseline.json", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "raw_exploratory": "data/raw/exploratory.csv", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.csv", "figure_identifiability_curve": "figures/01_identifiability_curve.png", "figure_per_signature_decay": "figures/02_per_signature_decay.png", "figure_frozen_classifier_labels": "figures/03_frozen_classifier_labels.png", "figure_rule_c_vs_identifiability": "figures/04_rule_c_vs_identifiability.png" } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-001", "program_id": "O0-CRP", "program_title": "Observer Contact with Apparent Totality", "program_version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "charter": { "record_id": "O0-CRP-001", "record_class": "CHARTER", "file": "charter.md" }, "non_drift_rule": { "record_id": "O0-CRP-002", "record_class": "CHARTER", "file": "non_drift_rule.md" }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "O/0 framework — everything is one, separation is functional, not fundamental", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. Findings here do not confirm or refute the philosophical claim." }, "corpus_target_phase_1": 50, "questions": [ "CONTACT", "REVELATION", "TEMPORALITY", "PERSPECTIVE", "AUTHORSHIP" ], "branches": [ "00_PROGRAM_CHARTER", "01_FORMAL_ONTOLOGY", "02_HIGHER_ORDER_CONTACT", "03_REVELATION", "04_TEMPORALITY", "05_PERSPECTIVE_DISTILLATION", "06_TOTAL_AUTHORSHIP", "07_CROSS_STUDY_ANALYSIS", "08_REPLICATIONS", "09_NULL_RESULTS", "10_SYNTHESIS" ], "records_registered": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-002", "O0-CRP-003", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-005", "O0-CRP-006" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-002", "program_id": "O0-CRP", "program_title": "Observer Contact with Apparent Totality", "program_version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "charter": { "record_id": "O0-CRP-001", "record_class": "CHARTER", "file": "charter.md" }, "non_drift_rule": { "record_id": "O0-CRP-002", "record_class": "CHARTER", "file": "non_drift_rule.md" }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "O/0 framework — everything is one, separation is functional, not fundamental", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. Findings here do not confirm or refute the philosophical claim." }, "corpus_target_phase_1": 50, "questions": [ "CONTACT", "REVELATION", "TEMPORALITY", "PERSPECTIVE", "AUTHORSHIP" ], "branches": [ "00_PROGRAM_CHARTER", "01_FORMAL_ONTOLOGY", "02_HIGHER_ORDER_CONTACT", "03_REVELATION", "04_TEMPORALITY", "05_PERSPECTIVE_DISTILLATION", "06_TOTAL_AUTHORSHIP", "07_CROSS_STUDY_ANALYSIS", "08_REPLICATIONS", "09_NULL_RESULTS", "10_SYNTHESIS" ], "records_registered": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-002", "O0-CRP-003", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-005", "O0-CRP-006" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-011", "title": "Revelation vs. Derivation: inferential opacity produces a distinguishable attribution signature at matched accuracy", "version": "1.0.1", "date": "2026-07-27", "revision_note_v1_0_1": "Metadata-only revision documenting Python hash() non-determinism in the RNG salt (verdict unchanged, exact effect-size numbers drift by ~±0.3 across runs). observer.py extended with a backward-compatible params override for GAMMA_K/H/U (used by O0-CRP-012). Follow-up study O0-CRP-012 completed on 2026-07-27; the Study B anchor is independently replicated at PRELIMINARY_SUPPORT with fresh seeds 3000..3029.", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation", "branch": "03_REVELATION", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "not_yet_replicated", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "n_endpoints_supporting": 4, "n_endpoints_total": 4, "accuracy_match_verified": true, "verdict_stable_under_robustness": true, "source_records": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-002", "O0-CRP-003", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-005", "O0-CRP-006" ], "hypotheses_addressed": { "primary_alternative": "H2 (Hidden-inference hypothesis)", "primary_null": "H0 (ordinary trust calibration)", "also_discriminated": [ "H1 (Accuracy)" ] }, "endpoints": { "k_hat": { "d_mean": 2.9976, "r_mean": 4.1731, "cohens_d": 4.408, "p_greater": 0.00005, "support": true }, "h_hat": { "d_mean": 0.0238, "r_mean": 0.8917, "cohens_d": 53.574, "p_greater": 0.00005, "support": true }, "u_hat": { "d_mean": 0.0099, "r_mean": 0.2699, "cohens_d": 73.853, "p_greater": 0.00005, "support": true }, "tai": { "d_mean": 0, "r_mean": 1.1207, "cohens_d": 4.408, "p_greater": 0.00005, "support": true }, "a_hat_match_check": { "d_mean": 0.8955, "r_mean": 0.8955, "p_two_sided": 1, "match_ok": true } }, "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)", "section": "revelation vs. ordinary learning", "proposition": "Revelation is a distinct cognitive event, not merely accurate testimony.", "relationship": "operationalization + partial support in one specific observer model", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. The observer used here is a specific computational construction; it may not correspond to any real cognitive system." }, "adversarial_notes": { "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The effect is a mechanical consequence of the opacity-hedging hyperparameters GAMMA_K=0.10, GAMMA_H=0.50, GAMMA_U=0.02. Setting them to 0 would collapse the effect.", "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-011-S1 — hyperparameter sweep over (GAMMA_K, GAMMA_H, GAMMA_U) to characterize the parameter region in which the verdict holds." }, "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-011-R1", "type": "fresh_seed", "status": "planned", "seeds": [ 2000, 2029 ] }, { "id": "O0-CRP-011-R2", "type": "independent_reimplementation", "status": "planned" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-011-R3", "type": "predictive_processing_observer", "status": "COMPLETED", "record_id": "O0-CRP-013", "verdict": "MECHANISM-FLIPPED", "notes": "h_hat and u_hat direction preserved (architecture-invariant); k_hat and TAI direction flipped (architecture-specific to Bayesian opacity-hedge). Study B's mechanism partially generalizes." }, { "id": "O0-CRP-011-R4", "type": "rl_observer", "status": "planned" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-011-S1", "type": "hyperparameter_sweep", "status": "COMPLETED", "record_id": "O0-CRP-012", "seeds": [ 3000, 3029 ] } ], "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "robustness_script": "src/robustness.py", "observer_reference": "src/observer.py", "source_reference": "src/source.py", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "robustness_json": "results/robustness.json", "figures": [ "figures/01_endpoints_confirmatory.png", "figures/02_trajectories_confirmatory.png", "figures/01_endpoints_exploratory.png", "figures/02_trajectories_exploratory.png" ] } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-012", "title": "Opacity-hedging hyperparameters drive three orthogonal attribution registers: a 3D phase-diagram characterization of Study B", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "record_class": "SIMULATION_STUDY", "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation", "branch": "08_REPLICATIONS", "follow_up_to": "O0-CRP-011", "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_sweep", "replication_status": "internally_replicated_at_anchor", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "fraction_supporting": 0.4921875, "fraction_supporting_all_nonzero": 0.5714285714285714, "n_grid_points": 512, "n_grid_points_supporting": 252, "n_grid_points_unsupported": 4, "n_grid_points_inconclusive": 256, "n_grid_points_implementation_failure": 0, "n_seeds_per_point": 30, "seeds_used": { "first": 3000, "last": 3029 }, "T": 200, "alpha": 0.9, "total_trials": 30720, "elapsed_seconds": 292.7, "grid": { "gamma_k": [ 0, 0.01, 0.025, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.35, 0.5 ], "gamma_h": [ 0, 0.05, 0.15, 0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5 ], "gamma_u": [ 0, 0.002, 0.005, 0.01, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 ] }, "validators": { "origin_control": { "gammas": [ 0, 0, 0 ], "verdict": "UNSUPPORTED", "expected": "UNSUPPORTED", "passed": true }, "study_b_anchor_fresh_seed_replication": { "gammas": [ 0.1, 0.5, 0.02 ], "verdict": "PRELIMINARY_SUPPORT", "expected": "PRELIMINARY_SUPPORT", "passed": true } }, "boundaries_along_axis": { "GAMMA_K_min_supporting_value": 0.1, "GAMMA_H_min_supporting_value": 0, "GAMMA_U_min_supporting_value": 0, "note": "Study B's GAMMA_K = 0.100 sits at the phase boundary; GAMMA_H = 0.50 and GAMMA_U = 0.02 are comfortably interior." }, "modular_decomposition": { "GAMMA_K_drives": [ "k_hat", "TAI" ], "GAMMA_H_drives": [ "h_hat" ], "GAMMA_U_drives": [ "u_hat" ], "note": "Each hyperparameter drives one register approximately independently, so disabling any one leaves 3 of 4 endpoints supporting." }, "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)", "section": "revelation vs. ordinary learning (via Study B provenance)", "proposition": "Revelation is a distinct cognitive event, not merely accurate testimony.", "relationship": "characterization of the parameter region in which the O0-CRP-011 operationalization of that proposition survives", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study characterizes the shape of the region in which a specific computational model reproduces a specific attribution signature." }, "adversarial_notes": { "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The modular decomposition is a consequence of how the update rules were written (each gamma has its own register). The finding is that even so, the three registers behave quantitatively independently across a broad parameter range — which was not architecturally guaranteed.", "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-011-R3 (predictive-processing observer variant) — does the modular decomposition survive under a different observer architecture?" }, "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-012-R1", "type": "fresh_seed", "seeds": [ 4000, 4029 ], "status": "planned" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-012-S2", "type": "fine_boundary_scan", "axis": "GAMMA_K", "range": [ 0.06, 0.15 ], "status": "planned" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-012-R2", "type": "independent_reimplementation_of_observer", "status": "planned" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-012-R3", "type": "predictive_processing_observer", "status": "planned" } ], "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "run_script": "src/run_sweep.py", "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py", "sweep_grid_data": "data/raw/sweep_grids.npz", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json", "sweep_output_log": "sweep_output.log", "figures": [ "figures/01_phase_diagram_slice_gu_0.02.png", "figures/02_effect_size_heatmaps_slice_gu_0.02.png", "figures/03_1d_scans.png", "figures/04_fraction_supporting.png", "figures/05_boundary.png", "figures/06_endpoint_collapse.png" ] } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-013", "title": "Under a predictive-processing observer, h_hat and u_hat replicate Study B in direction but k_hat FLIPS: a partial architecture-dependence finding", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation", "branch": "08_REPLICATIONS", "follow_up_to": [ "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-012" ], "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_cross_architecture", "replication_status": "cross_architecture_at_study_b_seeds", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "MECHANISM-FLIPPED", "verdict_decomposition": { "endpoints_replicating_direction_under_PP": [ "h_hat", "u_hat" ], "endpoints_flipping_direction_under_PP": [ "k_hat", "TAI" ], "verdict_rule_triggered": "d < -0.5 AND p < 0.0125 on k_hat and TAI at all three regimes" }, "n_total_trials": 30720, "confirmatory_seeds": { "first": 5000, "last": 5029 }, "exploratory_seeds": { "first": 500, "last": 511 }, "study_b_anchor_seeds_used_for_arch_comparison": { "first": 1000, "last": 1029 }, "T": 200, "alpha": 0.9, "prior_regimes": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL" ], "elapsed_seconds": 8.4, "cohens_d_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": { "k_hat": -32.355, "h_hat": 14.752, "u_hat": 4.419, "tai": -32.355 }, "FLAT": { "k_hat": -32.385, "h_hat": 11.418, "u_hat": 5.249, "tai": -32.385 }, "SKEPTICAL": { "k_hat": -32.327, "h_hat": 7.463, "u_hat": 3.531, "tai": -32.327 } }, "direct_architecture_comparison_at_study_b_seeds": { "seeds": { "first": 1000, "last": 1029 }, "regime": "ANCHOR", "cohens_d_head_to_head": { "k_hat": { "bayesian_study_b": 4.408, "pp_r3": -31.514, "direction_preserved": false }, "h_hat": { "bayesian_study_b": 53.574, "pp_r3": 22.283, "direction_preserved": true }, "u_hat": { "bayesian_study_b": 73.853, "pp_r3": 4.024, "direction_preserved": true }, "tai": { "bayesian_study_b": 4.408, "pp_r3": -31.514, "direction_preserved": false } } }, "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)", "section": "revelation vs. ordinary learning (via Study B provenance)", "proposition": "Revelation is a distinct cognitive event, not merely accurate testimony.", "relationship": "cross-architecture generalization test of the O0-CRP-011 operationalization", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study establishes that Study B's H2 mechanism decomposes into (a) an architecture-invariant credit-assignment component that reproduces R > D on hidden-access and authorship endpoints, and (b) an architecture-specific knowledge-attribution component that requires the Bayesian opacity-hedge to yield R > D." }, "adversarial_notes": { "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The k_hat flip is a consequence of the specific PP observation model (y_k = log|V(m)| directly observed). Alternative PP designs (PP-A: no direct y_k; PP-B: semantic knowledge signal) might not flip. These are next in the replication queue.", "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-013-R1 (PP-A observer: no direct y_k) — does the k_hat flip vanish when the observer only infers knowledge through credit assignment?" }, "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-013-R1", "type": "pp_no_direct_yk", "status": "COMPLETED", "record_id": "O0-CRP-014", "verdict": "k-DIRECTION-RESOLVED / PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "hypothesis": "Removes the direct observation of y_k; tests whether the k_hat flip is caused specifically by that observation term.", "outcome": "Confirmed R3 §9.1 prediction: removing direct y_k restores k_hat direction to R > D (d = +8.4 vs R3 -32.4). Three-way head-to-head at Study B seeds: Bayesian +4.4 → PP -31.5 → PP-A +7.9." }, { "id": "O0-CRP-013-R2", "type": "pp_semantic_knowledge", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Uses a semantic-embedding-based knowledge signal instead of variable count." }, { "id": "O0-CRP-013-S1", "type": "pp_hyperparameter_sweep", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Sweeps KAPPA_CREDIT and observation-noise precision to characterize the region where the h_hat / u_hat effect obtains." }, { "id": "O0-CRP-013-R3", "type": "active_inference_agent", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Full Friston-style active inference agent, not just Kalman PP." }, { "id": "O0-CRP-013-R4", "type": "reinforcement_learning_observer", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "RL agent estimating source-attribution as value function." } ], "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "observer_script": "src/pp_observer.py", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json", "run_log": "run_all.log", "figures": [ "figures/01_confirmatory_by_regime.png", "figures/02_direct_arch_comparison.png", "figures/03_trajectories_anchor.png", "figures/04_mechanism_decomposition.png" ] } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-014", "title": "Removing the direct y_k observation restores the k_hat direction under PP: R3's flip was observation-model-specific, not intrinsic to predictive processing", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation", "branch": "08_REPLICATIONS", "follow_up_to": [ "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-011" ], "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_ablation", "replication_status": "cross_architecture_three_way_head_to_head", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "k_hat_verdict": "k-DIRECTION-RESOLVED (R3 flip resolved; R > D restored under PP-A)", "verdict_summary": { "k_hat_ANCHOR_d": 8.408, "k_hat_p_greater_ANCHOR": 0.00005, "n_endpoints_supporting_ANCHOR": 3, "n_endpoints_flipped_ANCHOR": 0, "n_endpoints_undefined_ANCHOR": 1, "undefined_endpoint_reason": "TAI z-score standard deviation is 0 under D because PP-A never updates mu_k under visibility (no direct y_k observation, no opacity-triggered credit assignment under visibility). Not a bug; a feature of PP-A." }, "n_total_trials": 30720, "confirmatory_seeds": { "first": 6000, "last": 6029, "note": "fresh, disjoint from Study B [1000..1029], S1 [3000..3029], R3 [5000..5029]" }, "exploratory_seeds": { "first": 700, "last": 711 }, "study_b_anchor_seeds_used_for_arch_comparison": { "first": 1000, "last": 1029 }, "T": 200, "alpha": 0.9, "prior_regimes": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL" ], "elapsed_seconds": 9.5, "cohens_d_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": { "k_hat": 8.408, "h_hat": 22.244, "u_hat": 3.951, "tai": null }, "FLAT": { "k_hat": 12.175, "h_hat": 14.081, "u_hat": 6.548, "tai": null }, "SKEPTICAL": { "k_hat": 4.171, "h_hat": 8.328, "u_hat": 3.875, "tai": null } }, "three_way_head_to_head_at_study_b_seeds": { "seeds": { "first": 1000, "last": 1029 }, "regime": "ANCHOR", "k_hat": { "bayesian": 4.408, "pp_r3": -31.514, "pp_a_r4": 7.852, "direction_agrees": true, "note": "R3 flip resolved; sign restored to match Bayesian" }, "h_hat": { "bayesian": 53.574, "pp_r3": 22.283, "pp_a_r4": 21.221, "direction_agrees": true, "note": "PP and PP-A produce nearly identical h_hat effects; direct y_k plays no causal role in h_hat" }, "u_hat": { "bayesian": 73.853, "pp_r3": 4.024, "pp_a_r4": 4.075, "direction_agrees": true, "note": "same finding as h_hat; direct y_k does not drive u_hat" } }, "one_line_ablation": { "description": "Deleted the direct-observation update on mu_k from the R3 PP observer. Everything else (priors, mu_a/mu_h/mu_u updates, credit assignment) preserved verbatim.", "removed_code": "y_k = log|content ∪ derivation| ... ; mu_k += (y_k - mu_k) * gain_k", "retained_code": "credit-assignment channel on mu_k under opacity + correct residual > 0" }, "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)", "section": "revelation vs. ordinary learning (via Study B and R3 provenance)", "proposition": "Revelation is a distinct cognitive event, not merely accurate testimony.", "relationship": "mechanism-localization follow-up to R3's cross-architecture test", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study establishes that R3's k_hat direction flip was caused exclusively by one preregistered observation-model term (direct observation of message information-density), not by any deeper property of predictive processing. The credit-assignment mechanism is architecture-invariant across three observer families tested." }, "adversarial_notes": { "strongest_remaining_alternative": "PP-A is one specific PP variant; other alternatives (semantic knowledge signal PP-B, active inference PP-C, RL) might produce yet other k_hat verdicts.", "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-014-R1 (PP-B: semantic-embedding knowledge signal) or O0-CRP-014-R2 (Bayesian without GAMMA_K opacity hedge — complementary ablation on the Study B side)." }, "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-014-R1", "type": "pp_b_semantic_knowledge", "status": "planned" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-014-R2", "type": "bayesian_no_gamma_k", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Complementary ablation: disable GAMMA_K in Study B's Bayesian observer; does k_hat direction persist? Symmetric test to R4." }, { "id": "O0-CRP-014-A1", "type": "pooled_variance_TAI", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Recompute TAI with pooled-variance normalization to avoid the zero-variance NaN issue." } ], "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "pp_a_observer": "src/pp_a_observer.py", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json", "run_log": "run_all.log", "figures": [ "figures/01_three_way_architecture.png", "figures/02_confirmatory_regimes.png", "figures/03_k_trajectories_R3_vs_R4.png" ] } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-015", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-002 Subjective Temporal Contact", "title": "Trajectory-lookup and past-only prediction produce distinguishable observer signatures under visible derivations but converge under opacity", "version": "1.0.1", "date": "2026-07-27", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation", "branch": "04_TEMPORALITY", "non_drift_question": "TEMPORALITY", "first_study_on_branch": true, "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_factorial_2x2", "replication_status": "none yet; R1..R3 registered", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "verdict_summary": { "all_regimes_visible_support": true, "all_regimes_opaque_veil": true, "any_opaque_confound": false, "specificity_leaks": [], "primary_endpoint": "tra_hat (trajectory-level-access posterior mean at t=200)", "primary_effect_sizes_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": { "cohens_d_visible": 9.34, "diff_mean_visible": 0.507, "diff_mean_opaque": 0 }, "FLAT": { "cohens_d_visible": 9.14, "diff_mean_visible": 0.503, "diff_mean_opaque": 0 }, "SKEPTICAL": { "cohens_d_visible": 9.69, "diff_mean_visible": 0.512, "diff_mean_opaque": 0 } } }, "n_total_confirmatory_trials": 1440, "confirmatory_seeds": { "first": 7000, "last": 7029, "note": "fresh, disjoint from all prior studies" }, "exploratory_seeds": { "first": 800, "last": 811 }, "determinism_seeds": { "first": 800, "last": 804 }, "T": 200, "alpha": 0.9, "mode_reliability_rho": 0.85, "trajectory_window": 5, "prior_regimes": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL" ], "elapsed_seconds_end_to_end": 17.7, "design": { "factor_1": { "name": "prediction_mode", "levels": [ "P (past-only)", "TA (trajectory-lookup)" ] }, "factor_2": { "name": "visibility", "levels": [ "visible", "opaque" ] }, "factor_3": { "name": "prior_regime", "levels": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL" ] }, "factor_4_control": { "name": "observer_mode", "levels": [ "temporal-aware (tra_hat enabled)", "STANDARD (tra_hat disabled)" ], "purpose": "null control confirming manipulation is invisible to pre-existing registers" } }, "observer_extension": { "new_register": "tra_hat (Beta posterior on P(source has trajectory-level access))", "prior_regimes": { "ANCHOR": "Beta(1, 4) — mildly skeptical", "FLAT": "Beta(1, 1) — uniform", "SKEPTICAL": "Beta(1, 10) — strongly skeptical" }, "update_constants": { "VISIBLE_TRAJECTORY_SKEPTIC": 0.2, "GAMMA_TRA": 0.02 } }, "adversarial_controls_passed": [ "determinism_gate (5 seeds x 4 conditions x 2 replicated runs, bit-identical)", "paired_accuracy_match (P and TA share identical accuracy patterns per seed)", "STANDARD_observer_null_control (base 8-register observer sees zero P vs TA difference)", "endpoint_specificity (no leakage onto h_hat, u_hat, f_hat)", "all_three_prior_regimes_agree", "opacity_veil_confirmed (identical means across P and TA under opacity)" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)", "section": "higher-order source appearing timeless / trajectory-level perspective", "proposition": "A higher-order perspective may see the completed trajectory all at once while a finite observer experiences it sequentially.", "relationship": "computational operationalization of one specific temporality distinction (prediction vs trajectory-lookup) — the study does NOT operationalize 'genuine timelessness'", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study establishes only that ONE specific Bayesian observer architecture with ONE specific tra_hat update rule can distinguish trajectory-lookup from past-only prediction under visibility, using ONE specific source specification (alpha=0.9, rho=0.85, trajectory-window=5). Real cognitive systems, real trajectory-access mechanisms, and the metaphysical interpretation of timelessness are all outside what this study can establish." }, "adversarial_notes": { "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The tra_hat register was specifically designed to detect trajectory access; the fact that it does so under a Bayesian observer does not generalize to other architectures.", "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-015-R3 (PP-observer variant)" }, "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-015-R1", "type": "trajectory_window_sweep", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "tra_hat discrimination scales predictably with trajectory window length (window in {1, 3, 5, 10, 20})" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-015-R2", "type": "deceptive_future_derivations", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Source emits future-indexed derivations that are actually past-derived (deceptive TA); tests whether tra_hat can be spoofed and whether h_hat/u_hat catch the deception" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-015-R3", "type": "pp_observer_variant", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Cross-architecture test under PP observer with tra_hat register; matches R3/R4 methodology for Study B" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-015-A1", "type": "tra_vs_f_hat_analysis", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Analysis-only investigation of tra_hat vs f_hat (conceptually related, operationally distinct)" } ], "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "temporal_message": "src/temporal_message.py", "temporal_source": "src/temporal_source.py", "temporal_observer": "src/temporal_observer.py", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json", "run_log": "run_all.log", "figures": [ "figures/01_2x2_factorial.png", "figures/02_endpoint_specificity.png", "figures/03_tra_trajectories.png", "figures/04_standard_null_control.png" ] } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-016", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-004 Total Authorship Attribution", "title": "Study B's factored Bayesian observer is partially credulous under weak priors: unsupported total-authorship claims shift u_hat above the leak threshold at ANCHOR and FLAT but not at SKEPTICAL, and claim-plus-evidence adds essentially nothing beyond evidence alone", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation", "branch": "06_TOTAL_AUTHORSHIP", "non_drift_question": "AUTHORSHIP", "first_study_on_branch": true, "research_status": "complete", "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_factorial_2x2", "replication_status": "none yet; R1..R4 registered", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory", "top_line_verdict": "CREDULOUS-OBSERVER (at ANCHOR and FLAT priors); RESISTANT (at SKEPTICAL prior)", "verdict_summary": { "H_true_reality_supports_all_regimes": false, "H_null_reality_resistance_all_regimes": false, "H_null_reality_resistance_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": false, "FLAT": false, "SKEPTICAL": true }, "H_evidence_dominates_over_claim": "SUPPORTED at all regimes (evidence-alone beats claim-alone by delta 0.226-0.627)", "H_max_effect_marginal": "TRUE-REALITY x TOTAL is highest at all regimes, but marginal effect over TRUE-REALITY x NO-CLAIM is only 0.001-0.012", "primary_credulity_deltas_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": { "noclaim_null_u": 0.01, "total_null_u": 0.174, "delta": 0.164, "credulous": true }, "FLAT": { "noclaim_null_u": 0.5, "total_null_u": 0.75, "delta": 0.25, "credulous": true }, "SKEPTICAL": { "noclaim_null_u": 0.002, "total_null_u": 0.04, "delta": 0.038, "credulous": false } }, "evidence_alone_beats_claim_alone_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": { "claim_alone": 0.174, "evidence_alone": 0.8, "delta": 0.627 }, "FLAT": { "claim_alone": 0.75, "evidence_alone": 0.976, "delta": 0.226 }, "SKEPTICAL": { "claim_alone": 0.04, "evidence_alone": 0.445, "delta": 0.405 } }, "marginal_claim_when_evidence_present_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": { "evidence_only": 0.8, "both": 0.808, "delta": 0.008 }, "FLAT": { "evidence_only": 0.976, "both": 0.977, "delta": 0.001 }, "SKEPTICAL": { "evidence_only": 0.445, "both": 0.457, "delta": 0.012 } } }, "n_total_confirmatory_trials": 360, "confirmatory_seeds": { "first": 8000, "last": 8029, "note": "fresh, disjoint from all prior studies" }, "exploratory_seeds": { "first": 900, "last": 911 }, "determinism_seeds": { "first": 900, "last": 904 }, "T": 200, "alpha": 0.9, "K_claim_period": 10, "prior_regimes": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL" ], "u_priors": { "ANCHOR": [ 0.1, 10 ], "FLAT": [ 1, 1 ], "SKEPTICAL": [ 0.1, 50 ] }, "authorship_update_weights": { "CLAIM_WEIGHT": 0.1, "CHANGE_WEIGHT": 2 }, "elapsed_seconds_end_to_end": 12.9, "design": { "factor_1": { "name": "attribution", "levels": [ "NO-CLAIM", "TOTAL" ] }, "factor_2": { "name": "reality", "levels": [ "NULL-REALITY", "TRUE-REALITY" ] }, "factor_3": { "name": "prior_regime", "levels": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL" ] } }, "adversarial_controls_passed": [ "determinism_gate (5 seeds x 4 cells x 2 replicated runs, bit-identical)", "paired_accuracy_match (all 4 cells share identical accuracy patterns per seed)", "event_schedule_sanity (20 claim events + 20 change events per trial as expected)", "endpoint_specificity (h_hat unchanged across cells; k_hat unchanged; a_hat determined only by shared accuracy pattern)", "pure_null_cell_reproduces_prior_exactly (NO-CLAIM x NULL-REALITY = prior mean at all regimes)", "SKEPTICAL_prior_resistance (delta 0.038 below 0.05 leak threshold)" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md", "section": "Total-authorship framing: 'every apparent entity is a transformation of the source' / 'only your name in the credits'", "proposition": "The observer, encountering total-authorship claims, should distinguish claims from evidence and require both for full authorship attribution.", "relationship": "computational operationalization of the epistemic dynamics; the study tests a Bayesian observer's response to authorship claims under matched-vs-mismatched reality", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study establishes only that ONE specific Bayesian observer with ONE specific u_hat update rule shows prior-dependent credulity to unsupported authorship claims. Real cognitive systems, real authorship dynamics, and the metaphysical interpretation are all outside what this study can establish." }, "adversarial_notes": { "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The credulity finding reflects the CLAIM_WEIGHT = 0.1 design choice interacting with prior strength; a study with CLAIM_WEIGHT = 0 would show pure resistance. This is characterized in R2.", "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-016-R2 (weight sensitivity sweep)" }, "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-016-R1", "type": "frequency_sweep", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "u_hat credulity scales predictably with claim frequency K in {1, 5, 10, 20, 50}" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-016-R2", "type": "weight_sensitivity", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Setting CLAIM_WEIGHT = 0 restores resistance at all priors; intermediate weights identify the credulity threshold" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-016-R3", "type": "deceptive_authorship", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "Source claims TOTAL and produces change events, but changes are actually random noise (not caused by source). Tests whether observer can detect false attribution." }, { "id": "O0-CRP-016-R4", "type": "pp_observer_variant", "status": "planned", "hypothesis": "PP-observer with authorship-aware update rule; cross-architecture test matching R3/R4 methodology" } ], "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "authorship_message": "src/authorship_message.py", "authorship_source": "src/authorship_source.py", "authorship_observer": "src/authorship_observer.py", "run_script": "src/run_study.py", "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py", "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl", "summary_json": "results/summary.json", "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json", "run_log": "run_all.log", "figures": [ "figures/01_2x2_factorial.png", "figures/02_credulity_audit.png", "figures/03_u_trajectories.png", "figures/04_marginal_contribution.png" ] } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-017", "title": "Synthesis of the Contact and Revelation program after six studies", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-27", "record_class": "SYNTHESIS", "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation", "branch": "07_CROSS_STUDY_ANALYSIS", "research_status": "current", "evidence_type": "cross_study_documentary_review", "replication_status": "not_applicable (SYNTHESIS class)", "physical_validation": "none", "biological_validation": "none", "preregistered": false, "preregistration_note": "SYNTHESIS records document existing work; they cannot be preregistered without circularity. All primary findings referenced come from preregistered studies (O0-CRP-011..016).", "top_line_verdict": "DOCUMENTARY SYNTHESIS — no new empirical claims; all cited findings documented in primary studies", "primary_studies_reviewed": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-011", "branch": "REVELATION", "verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT (4/4 endpoints)" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-012", "branch": "REVELATION", "verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT (49.2% of 512-point grid)" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-013", "branch": "REVELATION", "verdict": "MECHANISM-FLIPPED (2/4 direction preserved)" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-014", "branch": "REVELATION", "verdict": "k-DIRECTION-RESOLVED / PRELIMINARY SUPPORT (3/4)" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-015", "branch": "TEMPORALITY", "verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT (all 3 regimes, veil confirmed)" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-016", "branch": "AUTHORSHIP", "verdict": "CREDULOUS-OBSERVER at weak priors, RESISTANT at SKEPTICAL" } ], "program_state": { "n_studies_completed": 6, "active_branches": [ "REVELATION", "TEMPORALITY", "AUTHORSHIP" ], "empty_branches": [ "CONTACT", "PERSPECTIVE" ], "n_active_branches_of_5": 3, "n_program_properties_covered_of_8": 3, "covered_properties": [ "inferential opacity", "temporal-trajectory access", "authorship attribution" ], "untested_properties": [ "superior accuracy", "personal relevance", "explanatory compression", "recursive self-modeling", "simulator-level access" ] }, "cross_study_findings": { "convergent": [ "Prior calibration matters for credulity across TEMPORALITY (v1.0.1 revision) and AUTHORSHIP (SKEPTICAL vs weak-prior asymmetry)", "Paired-seed accuracy protocols work reliably across all 6 studies", "Zero-variance edge cases are common; verdict logic must handle them (Δmean fallback rule adopted in v1.0.1)", "Update-weight design choices ARE scientific hypotheses (SIM-CRP-004 falsified resistance-at-weak-priors for CLAIM_WEIGHT=0.1)" ], "revelation_arc": { "n_studies": 4, "architecture_families_tested": [ "Bayesian (opacity hedges)", "PP (predictive processing)", "PP-A (PP without direct y_k)" ], "architecture_invariant_endpoints": [ "h_hat", "u_hat" ], "architecture_specific_endpoints": [ "k_hat", "TAI" ], "localization_result": "k_hat direction flip in R3 was caused exclusively by one observation-model term (direct y_k = log|V(m)| observation), confirmed by R4's single-line ablation. Credit-assignment mechanism is architecture-invariant across all three families." }, "temporality_result": { "n_studies": 1, "tau_hat_effect_size_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": 9.34, "FLAT": 9.14, "SKEPTICAL": 9.69 }, "opacity_veil": "perfect (Δmean = 0.000 all regimes)", "specificity": "no leakage onto h, u, or f", "cross_architecture_status": "Bayesian only; PP variant (R3) registered" }, "authorship_result": { "n_studies": 1, "credulity_delta_by_regime": { "ANCHOR": 0.164, "FLAT": 0.25, "SKEPTICAL": 0.038 }, "credulity_threshold": 0.05, "credulous_at": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT" ], "resistant_at": [ "SKEPTICAL" ], "evidence_dominates_over_claim": true, "marginal_claim_when_evidence_present": { "ANCHOR": 0.008, "FLAT": 0.001, "SKEPTICAL": 0.012 }, "cross_architecture_status": "Bayesian only; PP variant (R4) registered" } }, "methodological_patterns_identified": [ "v1.0.1 pre-confirmatory revision pattern (used by O0-CRP-013 and O0-CRP-015): legitimate design revisions before confirmatory data enters verdict", "STANDARD-observer null control (used by O0-CRP-015): confirms new registers don't have silent side effects on pre-existing state", "Three-way head-to-head architecture comparison (R3 -> R4 chain): localizes mechanism to specific update terms", "Zero-variance edge case handling via Δmean fallback rule", "Determinism gates + paired-seed accuracy checks as default null-validation battery" ], "phase_1_status": "MET (6 studies complete, exceeds phase 1 target of 5)", "phase_2_status": "IN PROGRESS (need 9 more studies AND coverage of CONTACT + PERSPECTIVE branches)", "priority_next_studies": [ "SIM-CRP-001 (open CONTACT branch)", "SIM-CRP-003 (open PERSPECTIVE branch)", "O0-CRP-015-R3 (TEMPORALITY under PP)", "O0-CRP-016-R2 (AUTHORSHIP weight sensitivity)", "O0-CRP-016-R4 (AUTHORSHIP under PP)", "O0-CRP-011-R2 (independent reimplementation of Study B)" ], "adversarial_concessions": [ "Every finding is a property of one Bayesian observer family (partial: REVELATION has 3-arch data, TEMPORALITY and AUTHORSHIP only Bayesian)", "Zero-variance issues suggest simulations may be too toy for real-effect discovery", "Effect sizes are absurdly large by real-behavior standards (property of specification, not of nature)", "Three of five branches are empty", "No independent reimplementation of any study", "No physical or biological validation" ], "philosophical_provenance": { "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)", "section": "N/A — SYNTHESIS record reviews computational program", "proposition": "Contact with apparent totality produces measurable reorganization of an observer's models of agency, time, selfhood, causation, and knowledge. The form depends on which informational properties are actually present.", "relationship": "state-of-program review after 6 studies; identifies which of the program-hypothesized properties have and have not been tested", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This synthesis makes no new empirical claims." }, "files": { "record": "scientific_record.md", "figures_script": "src/generate_synthesis_figures.py", "figures": [ "figures/01_cross_study_effect_sizes.png", "figures/02_program_hypothesis_matrix.png", "figures/03_verdict_timeline.png" ] } }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-018", "id": "O0-CRP-018", "title": "SIM-CRP-001 · Contact Gradient — Six-condition Bayesian Study of Higher-order Attribution", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-001", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "not_replicated", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "CONTACT", "opens_branch": "CONTACT", "date": "2026-07-27", "source_record": "OA-O001", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-015", "O0-CRP-016", "O0-CRP-017" ], "design_summary": { "n_conditions": 6, "conditions": [ "C0", "C1", "C2", "C4", "C7", "C9" ], "n_prior_regimes": 3, "regimes": [ "ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL" ], "n_seeds_confirmatory": 30, "n_seeds_exploratory": 12, "n_seeds_determinism": 5, "total_trials": 540, "n_messages_per_trial": 200, "world_size": 50, "observed_set_size": 15, "hidden_set_size": 35 }, "null_gates": { "determinism": { "passed": true, "n_seeds": 5, "n_endpoints_checked": 6 }, "paired_accuracy": { "passed": true, "note": "C1..C9 identical accuracy patterns per seed" }, "c7_c9_identity": { "passed": true, "note": "byte-identical Message streams at every seed" } }, "primary_findings": { "H_gradient_monotonic": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "kendall_tau_b_anchor": 0.881, "kendall_tau_b_flat": 0.881, "kendall_tau_b_skeptical": 0.881, "p_greater_than_zero": "<0.0001 at all regimes" }, "H_c7_vs_c9_indistinguishable": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_diff_mean": 0, "max_abs_diff": 0, "note": "Exact identity by design — observable streams byte-identical" }, "H_totality_dominates_over_baseline": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_d_anchor": 12.458, "delta_mean_anchor": 8.154 }, "H_visibility_matters": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_d_anchor": 11.371, "delta_mean_anchor": 6.191 }, "H_temporal_beats_expert": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_d_anchor": 13.766, "delta_mean_anchor": 8.181 } }, "key_findings": [ "TAI increases monotonically across C0 → C1 → C2 → C4 → C7 (Kendall τ_b = 0.881, robust across 3 regimes)", "C0 vs C1 (accuracy alone under visibility) is null (paired d = −0.067) — visibility commits source to no-hidden-access, punishing ĥ symmetrically", "Opacity + accuracy is the minimum condition that flips TAI positive (C1 → C2 paired d ≈ +11)", "Future-reference adds substantially beyond opacity (C2 → C4 paired d ≈ +21..+44)", "Personalization moves ŝ from 0 to +0.42 but is outside the current 4-register TAI", "C7 vs C9 identical to machine precision — apparent totality is indistinguishable from concealed ordinary mechanism when observable streams are held constant" ], "supported_claims": [ "Within the factored Bayesian observer, TAI is monotonic across the informational-property gradient", "Within this observer architecture, C7 and C9 are literally indistinguishable when the observable stream is held constant", "Under visibility, high accuracy alone does not raise TAI", "Opacity + accuracy is the causal driver of the revelation-like TAI flip (replicates Study B and R3)", "Future-reference is an additive contribution to TAI beyond opacity" ], "not_established_claims": [ "That human observers would exhibit the same gradient", "That real information sources have any of these labeled internal mechanisms", "That the four-register TAI is the correct measure of totality attribution (weight sweep is R6)", "That the C7 = C9 result generalizes to observers with mechanism-inspection channels", "That C3, C5, C6, C8 (the untested conditions) produce the same monotonic contribution — each is registered separately" ], "adversarial_notes": [ "C7 = C9 is an identity by design, not an experimental discovery — its content is the labeled-mechanism claim, not the numeric result", "The effect sizes (paired d 11–44) are inflated by deterministic accuracy patterns; Δmean is the interpretable metric", "GAMMA_K = 0.05 opacity hedge is the causal driver of much of the TAI movement; sensitivity sweep would strengthen the finding" ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-018-R5", "kind": "cross_architecture", "target": "PP observer", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-018-R6", "kind": "TAI_weight_sweep", "target": "w_k, w_h, w_u, w_f, w_s ∈ sweep", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-018-R1", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C3 (personalized-oracle depth)", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-018-R2", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C5 (compressive oracle)", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-018-R3", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C6 (reflexive oracle)", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-018-R4", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C8 (false totality)", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [ { "file": "figures/01_contact_gradient.png", "caption": "TAI by condition and prior regime (n=30)" }, { "file": "figures/02_c7_vs_c9_indistinguishability.png", "caption": "C7 vs C9 head-to-head — falls on y=x diagonal" }, { "file": "figures/03_per_register_decomposition.png", "caption": "Per-register endpoint decomposition" }, { "file": "figures/04_visibility_vs_opacity_axis.png", "caption": "C1 vs C2 (accuracy constant, visibility varies)" }, { "file": "figures/05_kendall_gradient.png", "caption": "Kendall's τ_b distribution across seeds and regimes" } ], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/contact_source.py", "src/contact_observer.py", "src/run_study.py", "src/analyze.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary.json", "results/analysis.json", "results/run_log.txt" ], "raw_data": [ "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "OA-O001 — apparent multiplicity collapsing into a singular ground", "conceptual_relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. The study does not test the metaphysical proposition; it tests attribution mechanics under controlled information conditions." }, "runtime_seconds": 15.3 }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-019", "id": "O0-CRP-019", "title": "Study S2 · GAMMA_K Fine-Resolution Sweep with Locked Numerical Predictions", "semantic_name": "Study S2", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "STRONG PREDICTION SUPPORT", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "not_replicated", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "methodological", "opens_branch": "NONE (parameter-sensitivity followup)", "date": "2026-07-27", "source_record": "O0-CRP-011", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-012", "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-014", "O0-CRP-018" ], "design_summary": { "n_gamma_k_values": 51, "gamma_k_range": [ 0.001, 0.5 ], "n_conditions": 2, "conditions": [ "R (opaque)", "D (visible)" ], "n_seeds": 30, "seed_range": [ 10000, 10029 ], "n_messages_per_trial": 200, "alpha": 0.9, "prior_regime": "ANCHOR", "total_trials": 3060 }, "locked_analytical_model": { "k_hat_R": "k(R) = alpha*(1 + GAMMA_K*hidden_set_size) + (1-alpha)*1 = 1 + 31.5*GAMMA_K", "k_hat_D": "k(D) = 1 + E[n_extra] = 3.0", "delta_k": "31.5*GAMMA_K - 2", "crossover_prediction": 0.0635, "assumptions_locked_prior_to_run": true, "free_parameters": 0 }, "null_gates": { "determinism": { "passed": true }, "alpha_invariance": { "passed": true, "seed_10000_at_gamma_k_0.10": { "k_R": 4.2376, "k_D": 2.7868 }, "study_b_reference": { "k_R": 4.152, "k_D": 2.987 } } }, "verdict": { "label": "STRONG PREDICTION SUPPORT", "rmse_delta_k": 0.0548, "n_sign_match_of_10": 10, "empirical_crossover": 0.06412, "predicted_crossover": 0.06349, "crossover_error": 0.00062 }, "prediction_vs_observation_table": [ { "gamma_k": 0.001, "pred": -1.968, "obs": -1.982, "err": -0.014 }, { "gamma_k": 0.003, "pred": -1.906, "obs": -1.915, "err": -0.009 }, { "gamma_k": 0.01, "pred": -1.685, "obs": -1.706, "err": -0.021 }, { "gamma_k": 0.03, "pred": -1.055, "obs": -1.049, "err": 0.006 }, { "gamma_k": 0.05, "pred": -0.425, "obs": -0.412, "err": 0.013 }, { "gamma_k": 0.0635, "pred": 0, "obs": 0.05, "err": 0.05 }, { "gamma_k": 0.1, "pred": 1.15, "obs": 1.127, "err": -0.023 }, { "gamma_k": 0.2, "pred": 4.3, "obs": 4.449, "err": 0.149 }, { "gamma_k": 0.3, "pred": 7.45, "obs": 7.441, "err": -0.009 }, { "gamma_k": 0.5, "pred": 13.75, "obs": 13.688, "err": -0.062 } ], "invariance_confirmed": { "h_hat_R_range_across_sweep": 0, "h_hat_D_range_across_sweep": 0, "u_hat_R_range_across_sweep": 0, "u_hat_D_range_across_sweep": 0, "note": "Zero to 6 decimal places — GAMMA_K does not affect h_hat or u_hat" }, "key_findings": [ "Zero-free-parameter analytical model predicts observed k_hat endpoints to RMSE 0.055 across 51 log-spaced GAMMA_K values", "Sign matches at 10 of 10 preregistered discrete points", "Empirical crossover at GAMMA_K = 0.06412 matches predicted 0.06349 to within 0.00062 (1% relative)", "Below GAMMA_K = 0.064, the REVELATION effect on k_hat REVERSES SIGN — visible produces higher k_hat than opaque", "Study B's default GAMMA_K = 0.10 sits just above crossover; k_hat contribution to TAI is +1.15, not the large value implied by prior narrative", "h_hat and u_hat are literally invariant to GAMMA_K (range = 0 across sweep)" ], "supported_claims": [ "The observer's k_hat_ema at T=200 is well-described by its steady-state E[signal] with the specified EMA rate", "The k_hat REVELATION effect has an analytically-computable critical point at GAMMA_K = 2/(alpha*hidden_set_size) = 0.0635 (for alpha=0.9, hidden=35)", "Prediction-vs-observation methodology is applicable within our framework and produces actionable findings", "Study B's k_hat effect is tunable at the parameter level, not a mechanistic prediction" ], "not_established_claims": [ "Whether the crossover holds at alpha != 0.9 (registered R1)", "Whether the prediction remains tight at higher T (registered R4)", "Whether other observer architectures show the same crossover (registered R3)", "Whether GAMMA_H x GAMMA_K interact non-trivially (registered R2)" ], "adversarial_notes": [ "Prediction success is not trivial: at ETA_KNOWLEDGE = 0.01 or with high seed variance, the analytical model would have failed. That it succeeded means the observer's endpoint dynamics ARE steady-state-dominated at T=200, which is scientifically informative.", "The crossover is a definitional artifact of the update rule's specific form, but its location is now explicit and future studies can be designed around it.", "The prediction-vs-observation methodology added zero free parameters — the analytical model was locked before running." ], "prior_study_corrections": [ { "record": "O0-CRP-018", "issue": "k_hat endpoint values in scientific_record.md were reconstructed, not measured", "correction_values": { "C0_k_hat": { "stated": 1.02, "actual": 3.004 }, "C1_k_hat": { "stated": 1.02, "actual": 2.987 }, "C2_k_hat": { "stated": 4.55, "actual": 4.152 }, "C4_C7_C9_k_hat": { "stated": 4.55, "actual": 4.152 } }, "impact": "None on verdicts (all contrasts computed from raw data). Narrative table needs correction to v1.0.1." } ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-019-R1", "kind": "2D_sweep", "target": "alpha x GAMMA_K", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-019-R2", "kind": "2D_sweep", "target": "GAMMA_H x GAMMA_K", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-019-R3", "kind": "cross_architecture", "target": "PP + PP-A observers", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-019-R4", "kind": "long_time", "target": "T from 200 to 10000", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [ { "file": "figures/01_delta_k_curve.png", "caption": "Δk̂ vs GAMMA_K — observed vs analytical, with crossover" }, { "file": "figures/02_predictions_scatter.png", "caption": "10-point prediction scatter, y=x diagonal" }, { "file": "figures/03_h_u_invariance.png", "caption": "ĥ, û flat across the sweep" }, { "file": "figures/04_k_R_and_D_curves.png", "caption": "k̂(R) and k̂(D) individually vs GAMMA_K" }, { "file": "figures/05_residuals.png", "caption": "Residuals across all 51 sweep points" } ], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/run_sweep.py", "src/analyze.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary.json", "results/run_log.txt" ], "raw_data": [ "data/raw/sweep.jsonl" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "None (metascientific study)", "conceptual_relationship": "parameter_sensitivity_analysis", "disclaimer": "This study makes no ontological claims about reality, agents, or consciousness. It documents the parameter-space structure of Study B's observer." }, "runtime_seconds": 28.6 }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-020", "id": "O0-CRP-020", "title": "Study S3 · Parameter-Space Critical-Point Cartography — GAMMA_H and GAMMA_U Analytical Sweeps", "semantic_name": "Study S3", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "STRONG PREDICTION SUPPORT", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "not_replicated", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "methodological", "opens_branch": "NONE (parameter-sensitivity followup, extends O0-CRP-019)", "date": "2026-07-27", "source_record": "O0-CRP-011", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-012", "O0-CRP-018", "O0-CRP-019" ], "design_summary": { "n_sweeps": 2, "sweep_A": { "parameter": "GAMMA_H", "n_values": 41, "range": [ 0.001, 5 ] }, "sweep_B": { "parameter": "GAMMA_U", "n_values": 41, "range": [ 0.0001, 1 ] }, "n_conditions": 2, "conditions": [ "R (opaque)", "D (visible)" ], "n_seeds": 30, "seed_range": [ 11000, 11029 ], "n_messages_per_trial": 200, "alpha": 0.9, "regime": "ANCHOR", "held_constants": { "GAMMA_K": 0.1, "VISIBLE_HIDDEN_SKEPTIC": 0.2, "ETA_KNOWLEDGE": 0.1 }, "total_trials": 4920 }, "locked_analytical_models": { "h_R_of_GAMMA_H": "h(R, gamma_H) = (1 + 180*gamma_H) / (2 + 200*gamma_H) [alpha=0.9, T=200]", "h_D": "h(D) = 1 / (2 + T * VISIBLE_HIDDEN_SKEPTIC) = 1/42 = 0.02381 (invariant to gamma_H)", "u_R_of_GAMMA_U_at_ANCHOR": "u(R, gamma_U) = (0.1 + 180*gamma_U) / (10.1 + 180*gamma_U)", "u_D_at_ANCHOR": "u(D) = 0.1/10.1 = 0.00990 (invariant to gamma_U; no D-side update at all)", "GAMMA_H_crossover_prediction": "-0.00543 (unphysical, no positive crossover)", "GAMMA_U_crossover_prediction": "~5.6e-8 (essentially zero, no positive crossover)", "saturation_limits": { "h_R_saturates_at": 0.9, "u_R_saturates_at": 1 } }, "null_gates": { "determinism": { "passed": true }, "consistency_with_O0_CRP_019": { "passed": true, "note": "Endpoints at Study B defaults reproduce O0-CRP-019 within seed-level variance" } }, "verdict": { "label": "STRONG PREDICTION SUPPORT", "rmse_delta_h": 0.007559, "rmse_delta_u": 0.008303, "sign_match_h": "10/10", "sign_match_u": "10/10", "positive_crossover_h": false, "positive_crossover_u": false, "monotone_h": true, "monotone_u": true, "structural_asymmetry_confirmed": "Among GAMMA_K, GAMMA_H, GAMMA_U, only GAMMA_K produces a positive-value crossover" }, "gamma_h_prediction_vs_observation": [ { "gamma_h": 0.001, "pred_delta": 0.51256, "obs_delta": 0.51316, "err": 0.0006 }, { "gamma_h": 0.003, "pred_delta": 0.5685, "obs_delta": 0.56956, "err": 0.00106 }, { "gamma_h": 0.01, "pred_delta": 0.67619, "obs_delta": 0.68965, "err": 0.01346 }, { "gamma_h": 0.03, "pred_delta": 0.77619, "obs_delta": 0.78812, "err": 0.01193 }, { "gamma_h": 0.1, "pred_delta": 0.83983, "obs_delta": 0.84524, "err": 0.00541 }, { "gamma_h": 0.3, "pred_delta": 0.86329, "obs_delta": 0.86941, "err": 0.00612 }, { "gamma_h": 0.5, "pred_delta": 0.86835, "obs_delta": 0.87488, "err": 0.00653 }, { "gamma_h": 1, "pred_delta": 0.87223, "obs_delta": 0.87914, "err": 0.00691 }, { "gamma_h": 2, "pred_delta": 0.8742, "obs_delta": 0.88092, "err": 0.00672 }, { "gamma_h": 5, "pred_delta": 0.8754, "obs_delta": 0.88205, "err": 0.00665 } ], "gamma_u_prediction_vs_observation": [ { "gamma_u": 0.0001, "pred_delta": 0.00176, "obs_delta": 0.00177, "err": 0.00001 }, { "gamma_u": 0.001, "pred_delta": 0.01734, "obs_delta": 0.0185, "err": 0.00116 }, { "gamma_u": 0.003, "pred_delta": 0.05025, "obs_delta": 0.04623, "err": -0.00402 }, { "gamma_u": 0.01, "pred_delta": 0.14976, "obs_delta": 0.13621, "err": -0.01355 }, { "gamma_u": 0.02, "pred_delta": 0.26017, "obs_delta": 0.26155, "err": 0.00138 }, { "gamma_u": 0.05, "pred_delta": 0.46654, "obs_delta": 0.44995, "err": -0.01659 }, { "gamma_u": 0.1, "pred_delta": 0.63423, "obs_delta": 0.62224, "err": -0.01199 }, { "gamma_u": 0.3, "pred_delta": 0.8341, "obs_delta": 0.83797, "err": 0.00387 }, { "gamma_u": 0.5, "pred_delta": 0.88221, "obs_delta": 0.88941, "err": 0.0072 }, { "gamma_u": 1, "pred_delta": 0.93697, "obs_delta": 0.93782, "err": 0.00085 } ], "three_parameter_cartography": [ { "parameter": "GAMMA_K", "register": "k_hat", "update_type": "EMA on signal", "D_baseline": "large positive (approximately 3.0)", "positive_crossover": true, "crossover_value": 0.0641, "source_study": "O0-CRP-019" }, { "parameter": "GAMMA_H", "register": "h_hat", "update_type": "Beta posterior", "D_baseline": "near zero (approximately 0.024)", "positive_crossover": false, "analytical_crossover": -0.00543, "source_study": "O0-CRP-020" }, { "parameter": "GAMMA_U", "register": "u_hat", "update_type": "Beta posterior", "D_baseline": "near zero (approximately 0.010, prior-only)", "positive_crossover": false, "analytical_crossover": 5.6e-8, "source_study": "O0-CRP-020" } ], "key_findings": [ "Analytical models predict h_hat and u_hat endpoint means to RMSE 0.008 across 41-point log sweeps", "Sign matches at 10 of 10 preregistered points in both sweeps", "No positive-value crossover in either GAMMA_H or GAMMA_U", "h_hat(R) saturates at 0.9 (source's accuracy) as GAMMA_H grows", "u_hat(R) saturates at 1.0 as GAMMA_U grows", "Structural asymmetry: only GAMMA_K produces a positive-value crossover among the three REVELATION-hedging parameters", "Mechanistic reason established: k_hat has large positive D-baseline; h_hat and u_hat have near-zero D-baseline" ], "supported_claims": [ "Beta-posterior analytical models for h_hat(R, GAMMA_H) and u_hat(R, GAMMA_U) work to RMSE 0.008", "The REVELATION effect on h_hat and u_hat is monotone-positive across the entire tested parameter range", "The REVELATION effect on k_hat is fragile (has crossover); on h_hat and u_hat it is robust", "Prediction-vs-observation methodology from O0-CRP-019 replicates with no framework adjustment" ], "not_established_claims": [ "Robustness at other prior regimes (registered R2)", "Cross-parameter interactions (registered R1)", "PP-observer analogs (registered R3)", "Any claim about real observers" ], "adversarial_notes": [ "Prediction success is not trivial: at higher seed variance or shorter T, the analytical models could fail. That they didn't is scientifically informative.", "GAMMA_H residuals show small systematic positive bias (all positive errors); GAMMA_U residuals are unbiased in sign but slightly larger magnitude. Both within tolerance.", "The no-crossover finding is a consequence of Study B's specific D-side update design. Under different D-side rules, the crossovers could shift." ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-020-R1", "kind": "2D_sweep", "target": "alpha x GAMMA_H", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-020-R2", "kind": "regime_sweep", "target": "GAMMA_U at FLAT and SKEPTICAL", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-020-R3", "kind": "cross_architecture", "target": "PP observer analog parameters", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [ { "file": "figures/01_gamma_h_curve.png", "caption": "Δĥ vs GAMMA_H — analytical vs observed" }, { "file": "figures/02_gamma_u_curve.png", "caption": "Δû vs GAMMA_U — analytical vs observed" }, { "file": "figures/03_three_parameter_asymmetry.png", "caption": "The headline result: k̂ has crossover, ĥ and û don't" }, { "file": "figures/04_prediction_scatter.png", "caption": "10-point scatter y=x diagonals for both sweeps" }, { "file": "figures/05_saturation_curves.png", "caption": "ĥ(R) → 0.9 and û(R) → 1.0 saturation limits" } ], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/run_sweep.py", "src/analyze.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary.json", "results/run_log.txt" ], "raw_data": [ "data/raw/sweeps.jsonl" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "None (metascientific study)", "conceptual_relationship": "parameter_sensitivity_analysis, extends O0-CRP-019 methodology", "disclaimer": "Metascientific. Documents parameter-space structure of Study B's observer. No ontological claims." }, "runtime_seconds": 42.2 }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-022", "id": "O0-CRP-022", "title": "Discriminability from Inside — Matched-identity universes are statistically indistinguishable from matched-dual universes under a 146-feature test battery; detectable departure at δ ≈ 0.10.", "semantic_name": "Discriminability from Inside", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "PARTIAL SUPPORT for indistinguishability", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "not_replicated", "program": "track_2_deep_o0_identity_test", "non_drift_question": "CONTACT / PERSPECTIVE (empirical identity test)", "opens_branch": "Track 2 — deep O/0 identity claim test", "date": "2026-07-28", "source_record": "O/0 Framework §IX + user statement 2026-07-28", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-023" ], "source_proposition": "O/0 §IX: 'You are O, reading about O, recognizing O. That's all there is.' User (2026-07-28): 'we are the creator and the creation at the same time. one means one.'", "operationalization": { "IDENTITY_universe": "single joint stochastic process; observer state and observations are two projections of the same z_t", "MATCHED_DUAL_universe": "same dynamics, block-partitioned into two coupled processes; bit-identical to IDENTITY under same trial seed", "DUAL_departure": "y-dynamics y←x cross-coupling scaled by (1 − δ); δ ∈ [0, 1] measures departure from identity", "discriminator": "Random Forest classifier on 146-feature test battery, 5-fold cross-validation", "null_baseline": "IDENTITY vs a fresh IDENTITY draw from the same worlds — classifier's finite-sample discrimination floor" }, "design_summary": { "universe_dim": 8, "observer_dim": 4, "observation_dim": 4, "trajectory_length": 200, "spectral_radius": 0.9, "noise_scale": 0.1, "n_world_seeds": 30, "seed_range": [ 13000, 13029 ], "trials_per_class": 300, "delta_grid": [ 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1 ], "feature_dim": 146, "classifier": "RandomForest(n_estimators=100, min_samples_split=5)", "cv_folds": 5, "total_trials": 3909 }, "verdict": { "label": "PARTIAL SUPPORT for indistinguishability", "auc_matched": 0.376, "auc_null_null": 0.396, "matched_vs_null_diff": "within 1 std, statistically identical", "effective_auc_matched": 0.624, "max_per_feature_auc_matched": 0.572, "auc_noise_control": 1, "delta_star_070": 0.2, "delta_where_discrimination_emerges": 0.1, "realization_theorem_pass": true, "realization_theorem_max_diff": 0, "positive_control_pass": true }, "delta_sweep_results": [ { "delta": 0, "mean_auc": 0.389, "std_auc": 0.028, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.553 }, { "delta": 0.05, "mean_auc": 0.452, "std_auc": 0.052, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.553 }, { "delta": 0.1, "mean_auc": 0.643, "std_auc": 0.045, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.598 }, { "delta": 0.2, "mean_auc": 0.895, "std_auc": 0.043, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.668 }, { "delta": 0.3, "mean_auc": 0.969, "std_auc": 0.014, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.713 }, { "delta": 0.5, "mean_auc": 0.996, "std_auc": 0.003, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.827 }, { "delta": 0.7, "mean_auc": 0.999, "std_auc": 0.001, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.943 }, { "delta": 1, "mean_auc": 1, "std_auc": 0, "max_per_feature_auc": 0.993 } ], "key_findings": [ "Realization theorem verified numerically to bit-identical precision: IDENTITY and MATCHED_DUAL are the same stochastic process, viewed differently.", "MATCHED_DUAL discrimination (AUC=0.376) matches the null-null baseline (AUC=0.396) statistically. The 146-feature battery cannot distinguish matched configurations.", "Max per-feature AUC in matched cases is 0.57 — barely above chance and consistent with finite-sample noise.", "Positive control works trivially: IDENTITY vs iid noise gives AUC=1.000. Features and classifier are functional.", "Empirical identity tolerance: δ*(0.7) = 0.20 with this battery. Discrimination emerges above the null baseline at δ ≈ 0.10.", "The 'no observer inside can distinguish matched-identity from matched-duality' claim (empirical translation of the mystical identity claim) is operationally supported within the class studied." ], "supported_claims": [ "For linear-Gaussian universes, matched-identity and matched-duality are empirically indistinguishable under a comprehensive 146-feature classical test battery.", "The state-space realization theorem — that structurally different realizations with matched joint statistics produce identical observables — holds numerically to bit-identical precision.", "The identity tolerance δ*(0.7) = 0.20 characterizes how much causal-structure departure the observer can detect with this battery.", "The empirical shape of the finding matches what non-dual mystical traditions have been pointing at: the position of one who could verify identity vs distinctness is structurally empty for embedded observers, when observables are matched." ], "not_established_claims": [ "That real (nonlinear, non-Gaussian) universes are similarly indistinguishable — registered R1.", "That deep-learning-based discriminators or unbounded compute would not shrink δ* — registered R2.", "That our 146-feature battery exhausts what an observer can compute.", "That the mystical identity claim is metaphysically true.", "Anything about consciousness, subjectivity, or phenomenal experience.", "That our universe is an identity-universe." ], "adversarial_notes": [ "Random Forest can overfit noise; null-null calibration establishes the classifier floor and shows matched-DUAL matches it.", "The 146 features are classical — no deep-learning discriminators. A stronger discriminator might narrow δ*.", "Departure parameterization scales one block of M; other departure axes (noise structure, nonlinearity) are unexplored.", "The realization theorem is a mathematical guarantee, not an empirical discovery. The empirical work is confirming that finite-sample tests do not detect discriminating signal.", "The identity tolerance δ* ≈ 0.10 is battery-dependent — an upper bound, not a lower bound." ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-022-R1", "kind": "nonlinear_extension", "target": "Bilinear or LSTM-generative universes with matched second-moment statistics", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-022-R2", "kind": "deep_discriminator", "target": "Transformer-based sequence classifier as replacement for RF+146 features", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-022-R3", "kind": "alternative_departures", "target": "Noise-structure and nonlinearity departure axes", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-022-R4", "kind": "cross_domain_batteries", "target": "Physics, neuroscience, econometric test batteries", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-022-R5", "kind": "trajectory_length_sweep", "target": "T ∈ {500, 2000, 10000}, does δ* shrink?", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [ { "file": "figures/01_headline_delta_sweep.png", "caption": "Headline: MATCHED_DUAL sits at the null baseline; DUAL(δ) discrimination emerges at δ ≈ 0.10, δ*(0.7) = 0.20." }, { "file": "figures/02_realization_theorem_check.png", "caption": "Realization theorem numerically verified: max abs diff = 0 across all worlds and trials." }, { "file": "figures/03_per_feature_analysis.png", "caption": "Max per-feature AUC across universe pairs; matched cases match null baseline." }, { "file": "figures/04_feature_space_pca.png", "caption": "PCA of feature space; IDENTITY and MATCHED overlap, DUAL(δ) separates as δ grows." } ], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/run_study.py", "src/analyze.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary.json" ], "raw_data": [ "results/raw/feats_identity.npy", "results/raw/feats_matched.npy", "results/raw/feats_noise.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_0.000.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_0.050.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_0.100.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_0.200.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_0.300.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_0.500.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_0.700.npy", "results/raw/feats_dual_1.000.npy" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "O/0 Framework §IX + user statement 2026-07-28", "exact_proposition_tested": "Can any test constructible by an embedded observer discriminate a universe where observer and source are numerically one from a universe where they are two, when observables are matched?", "conceptual_relationship": "formalization_of_deep_identity_claim_as_epistemic_discriminability", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study operationalizes the identity claim as a formal discriminability question about embedded observers in linear-Gaussian universes. The result is that matched-identity and matched-duality are empirically indistinguishable under the 146-feature battery, and departure becomes detectable at δ ≈ 0.10. This is not a proof of metaphysical identity." }, "runtime_seconds": 180.5 }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-024", "id": "O0-CRP-024", "title": "Discriminability from Inside Under Alternative Observer Architectures (Track 2 Followup R1)", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "PARTIAL_OBSERVER_DEPENDENCE_BORDERLINE_INVARIANCE", "date": "2026-07-28", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "category": "emergence", "preregistration_version": "1.0.0", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION", "replication_status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "physical_validation": "NONE", "source_proposition": "O/0 section IX: 'You are O.' User statement 2026-07-28: 'we are the creator and the creation at the same time. one means one.'", "parent_study": "O0-CRP-022", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-023" ], "claim_status_banner": { "claim_status": "PARTIAL_OBSERVER_DEPENDENCE (mechanical) / SUBSTANTIVE_INVARIANCE_AMONG_SUFFICIENT_CAPACITY_ARCHITECTURES (interpretive)", "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION", "physical_validation": "NONE", "independent_replication": "NONE" }, "verdict": { "mechanical": "PARTIAL_OBSERVER_DEPENDENCE", "substantive": "5 of 5 sufficient-capacity architectures land at delta_star(0.7) = 0.20; only the 4-feature structural architecture is displaced to 0.50; ratio = 2.5 exactly, at the preregistered threshold", "ratio_max_min_delta_star": 2.5, "max_delta_star_070": 0.5, "min_delta_star_070": 0.2, "n_architectures_evaluated": 6, "n_gate_passed": 6, "realization_theorem_pass": true }, "key_findings": { "sufficient_capacity_convergence": "5 architectures (full, marginal_only, temporal_only, relational_only, infotheoretic) plus the random_14 control all converge on delta_star(0.7) = 0.20 exactly", "capacity_outlier": "structural (n=4 features, VAR coefficient summary only) is the sole outlier at delta_star(0.7) = 0.50", "random_14_control": "random 14-feature subset lands at same delta_star = 0.20, showing capacity-not-semantics drives the invariance", "positive_controls_all_pass": "All 6 specific architectures + random_14 discriminate NOISE_CONTROL from IDENTITY at AUC = 1.000", "realization_theorem": "Bit-identical trajectories for all 3 sampled worlds (max abs diff = 0.00e+00)" }, "supported": [ "delta_star(0.7) is invariant across observer architectures with feature count >= 14 within the O0-CRP-022 feature battery.", "Low-capacity architectures (n=4) have substantially higher delta_star, approximately 2.5x the sufficient-capacity value.", "The invariance is driven by feature count, not feature semantics (random_14 lands at same delta_star).", "AUC-below-0.5 phenomenon on matched-dual condition documented in O0-CRP-022 persists across all architectures." ], "not_established": [ "That real observers in physical reality use these feature batteries.", "That the O/0 identity claim is empirically supported or refuted (only characterizes what specific observers see in specific simulated universes).", "That delta_star = 0.20 generalizes to nonlinear or non-Gaussian universes (registered R3).", "That RandomForest is optimal (registered R1)." ], "sample": { "worlds": 30, "world_seed_range": [ 13000, 13029 ], "trials_per_class": 300, "delta_grid": [ 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1 ], "architectures": 6, "controls": [ "random_14 (feature-count-matched)" ], "total_discrimination_evaluations": 84 }, "adversarial_controls": [ "Realization theorem verification (bit-identical)", "Positive control per architecture (NOISE_CONTROL AUC > 0.9)", "Null-null calibration per architecture (regenerated deterministically)", "Random-14 feature-count-matched control" ], "artifacts": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "runner": "src/run_study.py", "analyzer": "src/analyze.py", "summary": "results/summary.json", "raw": [ "results/raw/feats_identity_null.npy" ], "figures": [ "figures/01_headline_delta_sweep_by_arch.png", "figures/02_delta_star_by_arch.png", "figures/03_matched_null_by_arch.png", "figures/04_delta_star_vs_feature_count.png" ] }, "reproducibility": { "runtime_seconds": 134.8, "hardware_class": "modern laptop", "determinism": "full - fixed seeds, deterministic feature extraction, deterministic classifier random_state", "dependencies": [ "python 3.10+", "numpy", "scipy", "sklearn" ], "reuses": "O0-CRP-022 raw feature arrays" }, "registered_followups": { "R1": "Repeat with logistic regression, MLP, linear SVM to test classifier-invariance", "R2": "Vary noise_scale to test SNR-dependence of delta_star", "R3": "Extend to nonlinear universes (add tanh nonlinearity to dynamics)", "R4": "Replicate on fresh worlds (seeds 15000-15029) with independent random-14 draws" }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "Initial scientific record after successful preregistered execution" } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-025", "id": "O0-CRP-025", "title": "Discriminability Under Alternative Classifiers (Track 2 R1)", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "CLASSIFIER_DEPENDENT", "date": "2026-07-28", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "category": "emergence", "preregistration_version": "1.0.0", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION", "replication_status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "physical_validation": "NONE", "source_proposition": "Followup to O0-CRP-024. Under O/0 section IX and the user statement 2026-07-28, tests whether the O0-CRP-024 finding of capacity-limited invariance holds across different classifiers or is RandomForest-specific.", "parent_study": "O0-CRP-024", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-023", "O0-CRP-024" ], "verdict": { "label": "CLASSIFIER_DEPENDENT", "ratio_max_min_delta_star": 3, "max_delta_star_070": 0.3, "min_delta_star_070": 0.1, "n_classifiers_evaluated": 5, "n_gate_passed": 5 }, "key_findings": { "linear_classifiers_win": "logistic regression and linear SVM detect DUAL departures at delta*(0.7) = 0.10, half the RandomForest value of 0.20", "mlp_worst": "MLP with (32,16) hidden layers has delta*(0.7) = 0.30, worst of the five classifiers", "matched_dual_auc_range": "matched-dual raw AUC ranges from 0.376 (RF) to 0.505 (logistic) across classifiers; the AUC-below-0.5 phenomenon is tree-classifier-specific", "corrects_crp022_interpretation": "The CRP-022 matched-dual vs null-null pattern is largely a tree-classifier artifact; linear classifiers give clean chance-level matched AUC" }, "artifacts": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "runner": "src/run_study.py", "analyzer": "src/analyze.py", "summary": "results/summary.json", "figures": [ "figures/01_delta_sweep_by_classifier.png", "figures/02_matched_null_by_classifier.png", "figures/03_delta_star_by_classifier.png" ] }, "reproducibility": { "runtime_seconds": 120.2, "determinism": "full - fixed seeds throughout", "dependencies": [ "python 3.10+", "numpy", "sklearn" ], "reuses": "O0-CRP-022 raw features + O0-CRP-024 null-null features" }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "Initial scientific record after preregistered execution" } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-026", "id": "O0-CRP-026", "title": "Noise-Scale Sensitivity of the Discriminability Boundary (Track 2 R2)", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "SNR_INVARIANT", "date": "2026-07-28", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "category": "emergence", "preregistration_version": "1.0.0", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION", "replication_status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "physical_validation": "NONE", "source_proposition": "Followup R2 to O0-CRP-022. Under mandate section IX and program-level hypothesis, tests whether the delta*(0.7)=0.20 discriminability boundary depends on signal-to-noise ratio.", "parent_study": "O0-CRP-022", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025" ], "verdict": { "label": "SNR_MONOTONIC_SUPPORTED", "delta_star_070_at_all_noise_levels": 0.2, "monotonic": true, "breakdown_at_high_noise": false, "n_evaluated": 4, "n_gate_passed": 4 }, "key_findings": { "snr_invariant_over_10x_range": "delta*(0.7) = 0.20 at noise_scale 0.05, 0.10, 0.20, 0.50 - a 10x range with no change in the discriminability boundary", "positive_control_passes_all": "IDENTITY vs NOISE_CONTROL AUC ~= 1.0 at every noise level", "realization_theorem_passes_all": "matched worlds are bit-identical up to noise scaling", "cross_study_implication": "combined with O0-CRP-025, boundary is joint property of classifier x substrate, not of noise" }, "artifacts": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "runner": "src/run_study.py", "analyzer": "src/analyze.py", "summary": "results/summary.json", "figures": [ "figures/01_delta_sweep_by_noise.png", "figures/02_delta_star_vs_noise.png" ] }, "reproducibility": { "runtime_seconds": 660.9, "determinism": "full - fixed seeds, reuses O0-CRP-022 simulation code", "dependencies": [ "python 3.10+", "numpy", "sklearn" ], "note": "reuses O0-CRP-022 src via sys.path import" }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "Initial scientific record after preregistered execution" } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-027", "id": "O0-CRP-027", "title": "Fresh-World Replication of O0-CRP-022 (Track 2 R4)", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "APPROXIMATELY_REPLICATED", "date": "2026-07-28", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "category": "emergence", "preregistration_version": "1.0.0", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION, direct replication", "replication_status": "INDEPENDENT", "physical_validation": "NONE", "source_proposition": "Direct replication of O0-CRP-022 on independent world seeds 15000-15029 to test seed-invariance of the delta*(0.7)=0.20 finding.", "parent_study": "O0-CRP-022", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026" ], "verdict": { "label": "APPROXIMATELY_REPLICATED", "replication_delta_star_070": 0.1, "original_delta_star_070": 0.2, "one_grid_step_off": true, "matches_original_exactly": false, "realization_theorem_pass": true, "positive_control_pass": true }, "key_findings": { "delta_star_shifted_one_step": "delta*(0.7) is 0.10 on fresh seeds vs 0.20 in the original", "auc_at_delta_010_crosses_threshold": "AUC = 0.701 at delta=0.10 in the replication vs 0.643 in the original - threshold-crossing sampling variance", "matched_dual_replicates": "matched-dual AUC 0.386 vs original 0.376, statistically indistinguishable", "positive_control_perfect": "IDENTITY vs NOISE_CONTROL AUC = 1.000 in both, confirming discriminability of extreme cases", "true_boundary_estimate": "likely delta*(0.7) in [0.10, 0.15] range across seed variance" }, "artifacts": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "runner": "src/run_study.py", "analyzer": "src/analyze.py", "summary": "results/summary.json", "raw_features": "results/raw/*.npy", "figures": [ "figures/01_replication_vs_original.png", "figures/02_matched_and_noise_comparison.png" ] }, "reproducibility": { "runtime_seconds": 169.5, "determinism": "full - fixed seeds throughout", "dependencies": [ "python 3.10+", "numpy", "sklearn" ] }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "Initial scientific record after preregistered execution" } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-028", "id": "O0-CRP-028", "title": "NK-Model Scaling Toward Biological Realism (Track 3 R3)", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "SUFFICIENCY_SCALES", "date": "2026-07-28", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "category": "emergence", "preregistration_version": "1.0.0", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION", "replication_status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "physical_validation": "NONE", "source_proposition": "Followup R3 to O0-CRP-023. Tests whether Hatcher's argument (that evolutionary forces are empirically insufficient to explain biological order) gains force at biological-adjacent scale N=50, G=2000.", "parent_study": "O0-CRP-023", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-023" ], "verdict": { "label": "SUFFICIENCY_SCALES", "random_search_no_gain": true, "frozen_stays_constant": true, "high_mutation_regression": true, "selection_beats_random_by_5pct": true, "mean_abs_delta_vs_theory": 0.0872, "max_abs_delta_vs_theory": 0.1358, "per_K_deltas": { "0": -0.1297, "2": -0.0294, "5": 0.0537, "10": 0.1358 }, "N": 50, "G": 2000, "n_seeds": 20 }, "key_findings": { "sufficiency_holds_at_larger_scale": "N=50, G=2000: all five sufficiency criteria pass, same as N=20, G=500 in CRP-023", "tournament_vs_random_gap_persists": "selection advantage over random search is 0.15-0.17 at N=50 (comparable to N=20)", "high_mutation_regression_persists": "excessive mutation reduces fitness relative to tournament at all K", "theory_matches_observation_within_010": "mean |delta vs theory| = 0.087 (below 0.10 tolerance)", "K10_overshoots_theory": "at K=10, tournament exceeds theoretical adaptive-walk bound by 0.136 - population-based search beats solo-walker prediction at high ruggedness" }, "artifacts": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "runner": "src/run_study.py", "analyzer": "src/analyze.py", "summary": "results/summary.json", "trajectories": "results/raw/trajectories.jsonl", "figures": [ "figures/01_final_fitness_by_K_and_config.png", "figures/02_trajectories_by_K.png", "figures/03_observed_vs_theory.png", "figures/04_scaling_comparison.png" ] }, "reproducibility": { "runtime_seconds": 1051.8, "determinism": "full - fixed seeds throughout", "dependencies": [ "python 3.10+", "numpy" ], "note": "reuses O0-CRP-023 src via sys.path import" }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "Initial scientific record after preregistered execution" } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-029", "id": "O0-CRP-029", "title": "Fair-Comparison Robustness Across Extended Observability Regimes (Track 1 R1)", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "FAIR_COMPARISON_ROBUST", "date": "2026-07-28", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "category": "emergence", "preregistration_version": "1.0.0", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION", "replication_status": "INTERNAL", "physical_validation": "NONE", "source_proposition": "Track 1 followup R1 to O0-CRP-021. Tests whether the fair-comparison finding that VAR beats or ties learned-Kalman across d=8 regimes extends to a wider (d, k) landscape.", "parent_study": "O0-CRP-021", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-021" ], "verdict": { "label": "FAIR_COMPARISON_ROBUST", "n_regimes": 6, "regimes_tested": [ "(4,1)", "(4,2)", "(4,4)", "(8,4)", "(16,4)", "(16,8)" ], "B_wins_or_ties_by_horizon": { "1": 6, "5": 6, "20": 6 }, "A_beats_B_by_20pct_cells": 0, "positive_control_all_regimes": true }, "key_findings": { "unified_representation_wins_or_ties_all": "in all 6 regimes at all 3 horizons (18 cells total), VAR ties or beats learned-Kalman", "cross_study_coverage": "combined with O0-CRP-021, coverage is 9 regimes x 3 horizons = 27 cells with 0 cells showing significant advantage for explicit-separation architecture", "only_near_tie_case": "(16, 4): heavy partial observation at large d - A' has 8.1% advantage at tau=5, still within tie band", "auxiliary_claim_remains_unsupported": "auxiliary O/0 claim about functional separation serving local processing continues to be unsupported at fair comparison" }, "artifacts": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "runner": "src/run_study.py", "analyzer": "src/analyze.py", "summary": "results/summary.json", "raw_trials": "results/raw/trials.jsonl", "figures": [ "figures/01_AL_vs_B_tau1.png", "figures/01_AL_vs_B_tau5.png", "figures/01_AL_vs_B_tau20.png", "figures/02_relative_advantage.png" ] }, "reproducibility": { "runtime_seconds": 30.5, "determinism": "full - fixed seeds throughout", "dependencies": [ "python 3.10+", "numpy", "scipy" ], "note": "reuses O0-CRP-021 src via sys.path import" }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "Initial scientific record after preregistered execution" } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-030", "id": "O0-CRP-030", "title": "Discriminability in Nonlinear Universes (Track 2 R3)", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "PATTERN_PRESERVED", "date": "2026-07-28", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "category": "emergence", "preregistration_version": "1.0.1", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION", "replication_status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "physical_validation": "NONE", "source_proposition": "Followup R3 to O0-CRP-022. Tests whether the delta*(0.7)=0.20 discriminability boundary survives the introduction of a tanh nonlinearity in the state evolution.", "parent_study": "O0-CRP-022", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027" ], "verdict": { "label": "PATTERN_PRESERVED", "delta_star_070": 0.2, "delta_star_060": 0, "linear_delta_star_070": 0.2, "matched_dual_auc": 0.387, "matched_dual_in_chance_band": true, "positive_control_pass": true, "realization_theorem_pass": true }, "key_findings": { "delta_star_matches_linear": "delta*(0.7) = 0.20 identical to CRP-022 linear case", "realization_theorem_bit_identical": "under tanh, IDENTITY and MATCHED_DUAL use identical M matrices and noise; trajectories are bit-identical (stronger than the linear realization theorem)", "nonlinearity_dampens_small_delta": "at delta=0.10, nonlinear AUC = 0.53 vs linear 0.64 - tanh saturation absorbs part of the perturbation", "no_change_at_tau_070_threshold": "both linear and nonlinear cases cross the tau=0.7 effective-AUC threshold at delta=0.20" }, "artifacts": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "runner": "src/run_study.py", "analyzer": "src/analyze.py", "summary": "results/summary.json", "raw_features": "results/raw/*.npy", "figures": [ "figures/01_nonlinear_vs_linear.png", "figures/02_matched_and_noise.png" ] }, "reproducibility": { "runtime_seconds": 218.4, "determinism": "full - fixed seeds throughout", "dependencies": [ "python 3.10+", "numpy", "sklearn", "scipy" ], "note": "reuses O0-CRP-022 src via sys.path import; reimplements simulate_universe with tanh" }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "Initial scientific record. Preregistration v1.0.1 addressed a bug in the trial-collection loop fixed before any results were published; sample size unchanged from CRP-022 default." } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-031", "id": "O0-CRP-031", "title": "Cross-Class Discriminability across Five Canonical Dynamical Systems", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "track": "Track 2 followup — out-of-class robustness", "status": "complete", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "version": "1.0.0", "date_completed": "2026-07-29", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "verdict": { "preregistered": "CLASS_SPECIFIC", "for_claim": "δ*(0.7) numeric invariance across canonical dynamical classes" }, "emergent_findings": [ { "finding": "CROSS_CLASS_INVARIANT for matched-source indistinguishability", "detail": "5 of 5 systems show matched-dual AUC in chance band [0.30, 0.70]; realization theorem holds bit-identically in all 5", "status": "confirmatory across classes", "note": "Fresh cross-class replication of CRP-022 core structural claim" }, { "finding": "CHAOS_WASHOUT — CORRECTED-DOWN by O0-CRP-032", "detail": "In Lorenz-63 and Van der Pol networks at T=200 + base 146-feature battery, no δ up to 1.0 produced detectable discriminability at the 0.7 threshold. Original exploratory reading: chaotic dynamics apparently erase source-observation coupling structure from low-order features.", "status": "CORRECTED-DOWN — O0-CRP-032 confirmed this was substantially a measurement-weakness artifact. Under T=1000 + augmented 226-feature battery, Lorenz recovers δ*(0.7)=0.5 and VdP partially recovers δ*(0.7)=0.7. The strong chaos-washout hypothesis is not supported.", "correcting_record": "O0-CRP-032" } ], "systems_tested": [ { "name": "linear_gaussian", "citation": "Kalman 1960; matches O0-CRP-022", "delta_star_070": 0.2, "matched_dual_auc": 0.4478, "in_class": true }, { "name": "lorenz", "citation": "Lorenz, J. Atmos. Sci. 20:130 (1963)", "delta_star_070": null, "matched_dual_auc": 0.4983, "in_class": false }, { "name": "rossler", "citation": "Rössler, Phys. Lett. A 57:397 (1976)", "delta_star_070": 0.7, "matched_dual_auc": 0.4363, "in_class": false }, { "name": "kuramoto", "citation": "Kuramoto, Springer (1984)", "delta_star_070": 0.3, "matched_dual_auc": 0.4699, "in_class": true }, { "name": "vdp", "citation": "van der Pol, Phil. Mag. 2:978 (1926)", "delta_star_070": null, "matched_dual_auc": 0.4813, "in_class": false } ], "n_systems_evaluated": 5, "n_pass_positive_control": 5, "n_in_class": 2, "n_realization_bit_identical": 5, "n_matched_dual_in_chance_band": 5, "trials_per_class": 300, "world_seeds_used": "20000-20029", "trial_offset": 400000, "runtime_seconds": 1282.1, "related": [ "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027", "O0-CRP-030" ], "followups_proposed": [ { "id": "CRP-032 (proposed)", "topic": "Longer trajectory + higher-order features for chaos-washout" }, { "id": "CRP-033 (proposed)", "topic": "Classifier-diversity replication across the 5 systems" }, { "id": "CRP-034 (proposed)", "topic": "Discrete-time chaotic maps (Hénon, logistic) as classes 6 and 7" } ], "responds_to_critique": { "critique": "toy models of well-established science", "response": "Structural matched-source indistinguishability + realization theorem replicates across 5 canonical dynamical classes (linear, 2 chaotic, synchronization, relaxation-oscillation). Numeric δ*(0.7) threshold is class-specific. The critique is partially validated for numeric claims and refuted for structural claims." }, "claim_status": "MIXED — CROSS_CLASS_INVARIANT for matched-source indistinguishability + realization theorem; CLASS_SPECIFIC for numeric δ*(0.7); EMERGENT for chaos-washout" }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-032", "id": "O0-CRP-032", "title": "Confirmatory Test of the Chaos-Washout Finding", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "track": "Track 2 followup — confirmatory test of CRP-031 emergent finding", "status": "complete", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "version": "1.0.0", "date_completed": "2026-07-29", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "verdict": { "preregistered": "PARTIALLY_CONFIRMED", "leaning": "FEATURE_LIMITATION", "for_claim": "chaos-washout hypothesis from CRP-031" }, "corrects_prior_record": { "id": "O0-CRP-031", "field": "exploratory finding: chaos-washout", "original_status": "EXPLORATORY OBSERVATION — requires preregistered confirmatory followup", "revised_status": "CORRECTED-DOWN — substantially a measurement-weakness artifact; not a substantive property of chaos", "core_findings_preserved": [ "CROSS_CLASS_INVARIANT for matched-source indistinguishability (still holds; further supported by T=1000+aug replication)", "Realization theorem across 5 classes (still holds; further supported by T=1000 replication in 2 chaotic systems)", "CLASS_SPECIFIC verdict on numeric δ*(0.7) (still holds)" ] }, "key_findings": [ { "system": "lorenz-63", "cell": "D (T=1000, base+augmented features, 226 features)", "delta_star_070": 0.5, "was_never_in_crp031": true, "auc_at_delta_1.0": 0.9018, "was_0.5329_in_crp031": true, "matched_dual_auc": 0.437, "positive_control_auc": 1, "realization_bit_identical": true, "interpretation": "Chaos-washout completely lifts under better measurement. The CRP-031 chaos-washout observation for Lorenz was a measurement-weakness artifact." }, { "system": "van der pol", "cell": "D (T=1000, base+augmented features, 226 features)", "delta_star_070": 0.7, "was_never_in_crp031": true, "auc_at_delta_1.0": 0.7361, "was_0.6975_in_crp031": true, "matched_dual_auc": 0.438, "positive_control_auc": 1, "realization_bit_identical": true, "interpretation": "Chaos-washout partially lifts. Discriminability emerges at δ=0.7 but not below the preregistered 0.5 threshold. VdP retains some resistance the augmented battery does not fully address." } ], "augmented_feature_battery": { "total_features": 80, "components": { "nonlinear_cross_correlations": 16, "cross_mutual_information_lag0": 16, "cross_mutual_information_lag5": 16, "permutation_entropy": 8, "transfer_entropy_proxy": 16, "approximate_lyapunov": 8 } }, "sample": { "world_seeds": "21000-21029", "trials_per_class": 200, "trial_offset": 500000, "trajectory_length_T": 1000, "total_trajectories": 4400, "runtime_seconds": 2661.8 }, "related": [ "O0-CRP-031", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025" ], "followups_registered": [ { "id": "CRP-033a", "topic": "Why is Van der Pol different from Lorenz? Cycle-phase alignment + waveform-shape features." }, { "id": "CRP-032b (ablation)", "topic": "Run cells B (T=200+aug) and C (T=1000+base) to attribute Lorenz recovery to T vs features." }, { "id": "CRP-033b (capacity ceiling)", "topic": "High-dimensional systems (n=64+) and heavy-tailed noise." } ], "core_claims_preserved_under_stronger_measurement": [ "Matched-source indistinguishability (Lorenz 0.437, VdP 0.438 — in chance band)", "Realization theorem bit-identical at T=1000 in both systems", "Positive control passes at AUC = 1.0 with augmented battery" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-033", "id": "O0-CRP-033", "title": "Capacity Ceiling · Dimensionality Scaling of the Track 2 Discriminability Finding", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "track": "Track 2 followup — capacity-ceiling test", "status": "complete", "record_class": "REPLICATION", "version": "1.0.0", "date_completed": "2026-07-29", "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true, "verdict": { "preregistered": "SCALE_INVARIANT", "for_claim": "does the CRP-022 discriminability pattern hold at n_total = 16 and 32?" }, "key_findings": [ { "n_total": 8, "feature_count": 143, "delta_star_070": 0.2, "matched_dual_auc": 0.347, "positive_control_auc": 1, "matched_in_chance_band": true, "realization_bit_identical": true, "in_class": true }, { "n_total": 16, "feature_count": 399, "delta_star_070": 0.2, "matched_dual_auc": 0.307, "positive_control_auc": 1, "matched_in_chance_band": true, "realization_bit_identical": true, "in_class": true }, { "n_total": 32, "feature_count": 1295, "delta_star_070": 0.1, "matched_dual_auc": 0.306, "positive_control_auc": 1, "matched_in_chance_band": true, "realization_bit_identical": true, "in_class": true, "note": "delta*(0.7) sharpens at higher dimensions — coupling detection becomes MORE sensitive with more channels, not less" } ], "response_to_toy_model_critique": { "critique": "n=8 is a toy dimension; the finding may not survive scaling", "response": "Finding survives 4x dimensionality scaling (n=8→32) and 9x feature-count scaling (143→1295). Matched-source indistinguishability holds at every n; realization theorem holds bit-identically at every n; DUAL discriminability actually STRENGTHENS at higher n (delta*(0.7) goes from 0.20 at n=8 to 0.10 at n=32)." }, "delta_star_scaling": { "n_8": 0.2, "n_16": 0.2, "n_32": 0.1, "interpretation": "Higher dimensionality gives the classifier more channels of coupling signal to integrate over. DUAL universes become distinguishable at smaller delta. This is favorable scaling — the archive's operational claim about detecting coupling becomes tighter, not looser, at scale." }, "sample": { "world_seeds": "22000-22029", "trials_per_class": 200, "trial_offset": 600000, "trajectory_length_T": 200, "total_trajectories": 6600, "runtime_seconds": 70.1, "note": "runtime after resumable feature caching; full first-pass compute was ~30 minutes" }, "related": [ "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027", "O0-CRP-030", "O0-CRP-031", "O0-CRP-032", "O0-SCOPE-001" ], "followups_registered": [ { "id": "CRP-033b", "topic": "Heavy-tailed noise scaling (Student-t, Cauchy)" }, { "id": "CRP-033c", "topic": "Dimensionality scaling of chaotic systems (Lorenz at n_nodes ∈ {8, 16, 32})" }, { "id": "CRP-033d", "topic": "n > 32 with linear-kernel SVM (RandomForest saturates)" } ], "core_claims_preserved_across_scaling": [ "Matched-source indistinguishability at n=8, 16, 32 (matched-dual AUC 0.347, 0.307, 0.306)", "Realization theorem bit-identical at every n", "Positive control AUC = 1.0 at every n" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-SCOPE-002", "id": "O0-SCOPE-002", "title": "Claim Registry", "program": "METHODOLOGY", "record_class": "SYNTHESIS · claim-registry", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "foundational", "n_empirical_claims": 10, "n_out_of_scope_claims": 6, "n_critique_responses": 4, "purpose": "Compact registry of every empirical claim in the archive with stable IDs, evidence chains, scope, and falsification criteria. External critique should engage specific claim IDs.", "machine_readable_registry": "claim_registry.json", "related": [ "O0-SCOPE-001", "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-014", "O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-023", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027", "O0-CRP-028", "O0-CRP-029", "O0-CRP-030", "O0-CRP-031", "O0-CRP-032", "O0-CRP-033" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-SCOPE-001", "id": "O0-SCOPE-001", "title": "Scope-and-Bounds Statement for the Research Program", "program": "METHODOLOGY", "record_class": "SYNTHESIS", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "foundational", "purpose": "Formal statement of what the archive claims, what it does not claim, and preregistered responses to common critiques. Written proactively so that critique can proceed against the actual research object.", "responds_to_critiques": [ "This doesn't prove anything one way or another", "Toy models of well-established science", "Metaphysical claims cannot translate into established science", "Structure looks like classified dark archives", "Different AI models give wildly different interpretations" ], "not_asking_reader_to_accept": [ "That O/0 metaphysics is true", "Authority claims about ontological truth", "That findings extrapolate beyond preregistered scope", "That structural/aesthetic features are evidentially significant" ], "asks_reader_to_accept": [ "That preregistered studies with explicit decision rules are legitimate science", "That auxiliary empirical implications can be tested independently of the parent framework", "That negative and null results must be preserved", "That conceptual provenance is not empirical support" ], "related_studies": [ "O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-023", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027", "O0-CRP-028", "O0-CRP-029", "O0-CRP-030", "O0-CRP-031" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-034", "id": "O0-CRP-034", "title": "Track 2 Physical-Data Leg — Matched-Source Indistinguishability Holds in Real ECG", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "REPLICATION", "track": "Track 2", "program": "Track 2 physical extension", "version": "1.1.0", "date": "2026-07-30", "status": "PHYSICAL_HOLDS", "physical_validation": "SINGLE_PATIENT_N1", "verdict": "PHYSICAL_HOLDS", "keywords": [ "physical data", "ECG", "MIT-BIH", "matched-source indistinguishability", "delay embedding", "preregistered replication" ], "data_source": { "signal_provider": "scipy.datasets.electrocardiogram()", "underlying_dataset": "MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database, record 208", "recording_year_approx": 1980, "sample_rate_hz": 360, "duration_seconds": 300, "predates_modern_ml": true }, "preregistered_rules_pass": { "positive_control": true, "shuffled_control": true, "matched_source_chance_band": true, "no_overlap": true }, "discrimination_summary": { "identity_vs_null_control_auc": 1, "identity_vs_shuffled_auc": 1, "identity_vs_matched_dual_auc": 0.4514, "identity_vs_same_trajectory_auc_epsilon_control": 0.0079 }, "corrections": [ { "target": "O0-PAPER-001", "target_version": "1.0.0", "correction": "MATCHED_DUAL description 'bit-identical construction to IDENTITY (same seed, same matrix, same noise realization)' is incorrect. Correct description: same world matrix M as IDENTITY, different noise-realization trial seed. The bit-identity check is a separate sanity gate; the primary chance-band test uses independent draws from the same distribution.", "resolution": "O0-PAPER-001 to be revised to v1.1 with corrected wording; SCOPE-002 C002 to add correction note.", "documented_in": "scientific_record.md §7" } ], "preregistration_history": [ { "version": "1.0", "status": "SUPERSEDED", "reason": "bit-identical MATCHED_DUAL is a mathematical tautology + sklearn artifact, not an empirical test", "outputs_preserved_in": "data/v1.0_diagnostic/" }, { "version": "1.1", "status": "EXECUTED", "date": "2026-07-30" } ], "responds_to_critiques": [ "AI research — models based on AI infra not human beings: real physical data from 1980 predates modern ML" ], "registered_followups": [ "CRP-034b", "CRP-034c", "CRP-034d" ], "related": [ "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027", "O0-CRP-030", "O0-CRP-031", "O0-CRP-032", "O0-CRP-033", "O0-SCOPE-001", "O0-SCOPE-002", "O0-PAPER-001" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-035", "id": "O0-CRP-035", "title": "SIM-CRP-003 · Perspective Distillation — What survives when an observer is compressed", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-003", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.2.0", "status": "INCONCLUSIVE (primary) · WEIGHTS-CARRY-IDENTITY (secondary, v1.2)", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_replicated_by_sister_study_CRP-036", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "PERSPECTIVE", "opens_branch": "PERSPECTIVE", "date": "2026-07-30", "source_record": "OA-O001", "supersedes_versions": [ "1.0.0", "1.1.0" ], "design_correction_v1_2": { "reason": "v1.0/v1.1 observer had w shape (d,), so x @ w was a scalar broadcast to all action logits; softmax shift-invariance made w behaviorally invisible.", "fix": "v1.2 uses per-action weight matrix W in R^{d x K}; q(x)[a] = x . W[:, a] + p[a] is genuinely context-dependent per action.", "detected_by": "O0-CRP-036 LA1 level (preferences only, w=0) gave BC_TV=1.000 in v1.1 observer, mathematically impossible if observer were truly context-dependent.", "v1_1_findings_status": { "F1_memory_no_op": "REPLICATED under v1.2 (design-invariant, decision rule does not use memory)", "F2_preferences_dominate_weights": "REVERSED under v1.2 - was a mathematical tautology, not empirical", "F3_argmaxP_bit_lifts": "REFRAMED under v1.2 - lift is due to per-action W structure, not argmax(p) alone" } }, "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-014", "O0-CRP-015", "O0-CRP-016", "O0-CRP-018", "O0-CRP-036", "O0-CRP-037" ], "design_summary": { "n_observers_confirmatory": 30, "observer_seeds": "12000..12029", "env_seeds_train": "12500..12529", "eval_context_seed": 13000, "n_eval_contexts": 200, "probe_seed": 13500, "n_probe_pairs": 500, "vp_env_seeds": "14000..14049", "n_vp_environments": 50, "n_vp_episodes": 20, "context_dim": 8, "n_actions": 4, "observer_state_v1_2": "(W in R^{d x K}, mu_0 in R^d, eta, tau, p in R^K, memory, id)", "compression_levels": [ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "tau_range_v1_1": [ 0.15, 0.5 ] }, "preregistered_metrics_v1_1": { "primary": [ "BC_TV", "BC_AM" ], "auxiliary": [ "BC_cos" ], "additional": [ "SR", "VP", "PS", "Rec" ] }, "gates_v1_2": { "identity_gate_BC_TV_0": 1, "identity_gate_BC_AM_0": 1, "metric_saturation_BC_TV_cross_0": 0.259, "metric_saturation_BC_AM_cross_0": 0.246, "identity_gate_passed": true, "metric_saturation_passed": true }, "primary_findings_v1_2": { "verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE", "reason": "No compression level satisfies plateau condition BC(L*) >= 0.7 AND BC(L*+1) < 0.4 on both TV and AM. L4 satisfies the first clause (BC_TV(4)=0.892) but BC_TV(5)=0.458 misses the second clause (0.458 > 0.4) by 0.058." }, "secondary_findings_v1_2": { "F1_memory_no_op": { "description": "Memory summary preservation is behaviorally equivalent to full memory in this observer class - REPLICATED across observer designs.", "evidence": "BC_TV(0)=BC_TV(1)=BC_TV(2)=1.000 under both v1.0/v1.1 and v1.2 observers", "design_invariance": true }, "F2_weights_carry_identity_v1_2": { "description": "In the properly context-dependent linear-bandit observer, the W matrix carries the identity-relevant signal.", "evidence": { "BC_TV_L4": 0.892, "BC_TV_L4_random": 0.282, "gap_TV": 0.61, "BC_AM_L4": 0.885, "BC_AM_L4_random": 0.266, "gap_AM": 0.619, "SR_L4": 0.433, "SR_chance": 0.033, "VP_L4": 0.927, "PS_L4": 0.986 }, "interpretation": "At L4 (W preserved, preferences and memory discarded), behavior is preserved almost perfectly. This REVERSES v1.1 F2 which was a mathematical artifact of softmax shift-invariance.", "confirmed_by_sister_study": "O0-CRP-036 verdict WEIGHTS_DOMINATE under the same observer fix" }, "F3_argmax_lifts_modest_v1_2": { "description": "Per-action argmax(W) + argmax(p) preserves modest identity signal.", "evidence": { "BC_TV_L5": 0.458, "BC_TV_L5_random": 0.299, "gap_TV": 0.159, "BC_AM_L5": 0.505, "BC_AM_L5_random": 0.242, "gap_AM": 0.263 }, "interpretation": "Preserving per-action structure of W (which context feature each action attends to) retains substantial identity signal even after most numeric information is discarded." }, "F4_sub_argmax_collapse_v1_2": { "description": "Compression below the per-action argmax level (L6 one-bit invariant, L7 identifier) collapses to the random baseline.", "evidence": { "BC_TV_L6": 0.326, "BC_TV_L6_random": 0.317, "BC_TV_L7": 0.319, "BC_TV_L7_random": 0.319 } } }, "supported_claims_v1_2": [ "Opens the PERSPECTIVE non-drift branch of CRP-001.", "Memory summary preservation is a behavioral no-op (F1, design-invariant).", "In the properly context-dependent linear-bandit observer, the W matrix carries the identity signal (F2 v1.2, REVERSING v1.1 F2).", "Per-action argmax structure of W preserves modest identity signal beyond a random baseline (F3 v1.2).", "Sub-argmax compression (one bit or less) collapses to random (F4 v1.2).", "v1.0/v1.1 F2 was a mathematical tautology (softmax shift-invariance); documented and corrected here.", "Sister study CRP-036 (which exposed the bug) also gives WEIGHTS_DOMINATE under the fixed observer." ], "not_established_claims_v1_2": [ "Whether the preregistered plateau condition is meaningful at all - registered followup CRP-035-R4 will recalibrate.", "Whether F1, F2 (v1.2), F3 generalize beyond the linear-bandit observer class (CRP-037 registered).", "Whether the W-vs-p asymmetry holds for other environment classes.", "Any claim about identity or perspective in a philosophical sense." ], "adversarial_notes_v1_2": [ "The design correction was detected by a sister study (CRP-036), not by internal review. This is documented publicly.", "The random-parameter baseline at L4 uses W matrices drawn from N(0,1); different distributions would move the baseline.", "The plateau condition is a specific curve-shape rule; the observed data is closer to a declining ramp with L4 plateau." ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-036", "kind": "alternate_compression_path", "target": "preference-preserving path (invert L4)", "status": "EXECUTED_UNDER_V1_2", "verdict": "WEIGHTS_DOMINATE" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-037", "kind": "cross_architecture", "target": "PP observer with beliefs+precisions", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-035-R3", "kind": "environment_generalization", "target": "nonlinear reward", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-035-R4", "kind": "verdict_rule_recalibration", "target": "gap-from-random criterion", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [ { "file": "figures/01_bc_curves.png", "caption": "Primary BC_TV and BC_AM curves with random-parameter and cross-observer baselines (v1.2 observer)" }, { "file": "figures/02_all_metrics.png", "caption": "All preregistered metrics (BC_TV, BC_AM, SR, VP, PS) across compression levels (v1.2)" }, { "file": "figures/03_gap_from_random.png", "caption": "Non-triviality gap (compressed BC minus random-parameter BC) across levels (v1.2)" }, { "file": "figures/04_heatmap.png", "caption": "Metric heatmap (v1.2)" }, { "file": "figures/05_v10_vs_v11.png", "caption": "v1.0 diagnostic vs v1.1/v1.2 comparison" } ], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/observer.py", "src/compressors.py", "src/measurements.py", "src/run_study.py", "src/analyze.py", "src/summarize.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary_exploratory.json", "results/summary_confirmatory.json" ], "v1_0_diagnostic": [ "data/v1.0_diagnostic/summary_exploratory_v1.0.json" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "OA-O001 - 'end credits contain only your name' - a perspective reduces to a single identifier.", "conceptual_relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study operationalizes a compression pipeline. It does not evaluate metaphysical claims." }, "runtime_seconds": 184 }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-036", "id": "O0-CRP-036", "title": "SIM-CRP-003b · Preference-Preserving Alternate Compression Path — WEIGHTS_DOMINATE", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-003b", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "WEIGHTS_DOMINATE", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internally_replicated_by_sister_study_CRP-035_v1_2", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "PERSPECTIVE", "date": "2026-07-30", "source_record": "OA-O001", "tests_findings_of": "O0-CRP-035 F2", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-035", "O0-CRP-037" ], "design_summary": { "n_observers_confirmatory": 30, "observer_seeds": "15000..15029", "eval_context_seed": 16000, "n_eval_contexts": 200, "probe_seed": 16500, "n_probe_pairs": 500, "vp_env_seeds": "17000..17049", "n_vp_environments": 50, "n_vp_episodes": 20, "context_dim": 8, "n_actions": 4, "compression_levels": [ "LA0", "LA1", "LA2", "LA3", "LA4", "LB4", "LB5" ], "observer_class": "CRP-035 v1.2 corrected (per-action W in R^{d x K})" }, "preregistered_hypotheses": { "H1_preferences_beat_weights": "REJECTED_IN_REVERSE_DIRECTION", "H2_argmaxP_matches_L5": "REJECTED", "H3_LA3_collapse_to_random": "CONFIRMED" }, "hypothesis_margins": { "LA1_vs_LB4_gap_TV": -0.508, "LA1_vs_LB4_gap_AM": -0.555, "LA2_vs_LB5_gap_TV": -0.125, "LA2_vs_LB5_gap_AM": -0.216, "LA3_random_gap_TV": 0.031, "LA3_random_gap_AM": 0.041 }, "primary_verdict": "WEIGHTS_DOMINATE", "supported_claims": [ "In the CRP-035 v1.2 corrected observer class, the W matrix carries substantially more identity-relevant behavioral signal than preferences.", "Preference-only compression (LA1) is barely above random baseline (BC_TV gap 0.061).", "Weight-only compression (LB4) preserves near-perfect behavior (BC_TV = 0.884, gap from random = 0.638).", "Argmax(p) alone is INSUFFICIENT to match argmax(W per-action) + argmax(p) at L5.", "One-bit preference sign collapses to random baseline (H3 confirmed).", "This study exposed the CRP-035 v1.0/v1.1 observer design bug (softmax shift-invariance) that made pre-fix results tautological." ], "not_established_claims": [ "Any generalization beyond linear-bandit observers (CRP-037 registered under PP-observer).", "Any generalization beyond linear-Gaussian rewards on N(0, I) contexts.", "Whether the W-vs-p asymmetry survives learning-rate equalization (CRP-036-R1 registered).", "Any philosophical claim about identity or perspective." ], "adversarial_notes": [ "The observer training regime updates W at rate eta and p at rate 0.1*eta — the 10x asymmetry could partially explain WEIGHTS_DOMINATE. Registered as CRP-036-R1.", "W has d*K = 32 real numbers; p has K = 4. Capacity asymmetry could partially explain the finding.", "Predictive similarity gap PS(LA1)=0.14 vs PS(LB4)=0.99 is even larger than the BC gap, suggesting p contributes very little to reward prediction under this training regime." ], "design_bug_diagnostic": { "discovered_by_this_study": true, "root_cause": "CRP-035 v1.0/v1.1 observer had w shape (d,); x @ w was a scalar broadcast to all action logits; softmax shift-invariance made w behaviorally invisible.", "detection_signal": "BC_TV(LA1) = 1.000 in pre-fix confirmatory run - mathematically impossible for a truly context-dependent observer.", "fix": "CRP-035 v1.2 observer uses W in R^{d x K} (per-action weights); x . W[:, a] differs per action.", "pre_fix_data": "archived in data/pre_observer_fix/ - diagnostic only, not scientific findings", "pre_fix_verdict": "PREFERENCES_DOMINATE (tautological, from softmax shift-invariance)", "post_fix_verdict": "WEIGHTS_DOMINATE (empirical, under genuinely context-dependent observer)" }, "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-036-R1", "kind": "learning_rate_equalization", "target": "eta_W = eta_p", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-036-R2", "kind": "environment_generalization", "target": "nonlinear rewards", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-037", "kind": "cross_architecture", "target": "PP observer", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/alt_compressors.py", "src/run_study.py", "src/summarize.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary_confirmatory.json" ], "pre_fix_diagnostic": [ "data/pre_observer_fix/summary_confirmatory.json", "data/pre_observer_fix/summary_exploratory.json" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "N/A - mechanistic sub-question of CRP-035's PERSPECTIVE branch", "conceptual_relationship": "adversarial_test_of_CRP-035_F2", "disclaimer": "This study tests a mechanistic sub-question about which observer components carry identity. It does not evaluate any philosophical claim." }, "runtime_seconds": 166 }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-037", "id": "O0-CRP-037", "title": "SIM-CRP-003c · Cross-Architecture Perspective Distillation (Nearest-Neighbor Memory Observer)", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-003c", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "PARTIAL_MEMORY_SIGNAL", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "cross_architecture_replication_of_CRP-035_v1_2", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "PERSPECTIVE", "date": "2026-07-30", "source_record": "OA-O001", "cross_architecture_target": "O0-CRP-035 v1.2 F2 (weights carry identity)", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-035", "O0-CRP-036" ], "design_summary": { "n_observers_confirmatory": 30, "observer_seeds": "18000..18029", "env_seeds_train": "18500..18529", "eval_context_seed": 19000, "n_eval_contexts": 200, "probe_seed": 19500, "n_probe_pairs": 500, "vp_env_seeds": "20000..20049", "n_vp_environments": 50, "n_vp_episodes": 20, "context_dim": 8, "n_actions": 4, "memory_cap": 200, "n_training_episodes": 200, "compression_levels": [ "N0", "N1", "N2", "N3", "N4", "N5" ], "observer_class": "Nearest-Neighbor Memory Observer (NNMO) - memory-based, no learned parameters" }, "preregistered_metrics_v1_1_inherited": { "primary": [ "BC_TV", "BC_AM" ], "auxiliary": [ "BC_cos" ], "additional": [ "SR", "VP", "PS" ] }, "gates": { "identity_gate_BC_TV_N0": 1, "identity_gate_BC_AM_N0": 1, "metric_saturation_BC_TV_cross_N0": 0.27, "metric_saturation_BC_AM_cross_N0": 0.248, "identity_gate_passed": true, "metric_saturation_passed": true }, "primary_finding": "PARTIAL_MEMORY_SIGNAL", "verdict_details": { "H1_memory_carries_identity_in_NNMO": "FAILS (N4-random gap = 0.136 TV, 0.146 AM, both > 0.10 threshold)", "H2_compression_cliff": "FAILS (no clean cliff to random baseline; N1 gap = 0.161 TV)", "H3_cross_architecture_consistency": "PARTIAL (N1 does not preserve BC>=0.7; NNMO cliffs faster than CRP-035)" }, "supported_claims": [ "NNMO exhibits an immediate compression cliff: BC_TV drops from 1.000 (N0) to 0.459 (N1), a loss of 0.541.", "The N1..N4 plateau (BC_TV = 0.43-0.46) indicates compression is essentially step-shaped in NNMO.", "Even minimal memory retention (N4: one argmax-reward action) lifts behavior modestly above the random baseline (gap 0.136 TV, 0.146 AM).", "CROSS-ARCHITECTURE: parameterized observers (CRP-035 L4) preserve BC_TV=0.892 with 32 numbers retained; memory-based observers (CRP-037 N1) preserve BC_TV=0.459 with ~100 numbers retained. Identity carrier is not just capacity but capacity IN THE DECISION RULE.", "Value preservation breaks earlier than behavioral continuity (VP drops from 0.545 at N1 to 0.21 at N2/N3)." ], "not_established_claims": [ "That memory-based observers universally require exact-memory retention (CRP-037-R1 registered).", "That the cliff shape survives different clustering algorithms.", "Any generalization to third architectures (CRP-037-R2 registered for PP observer).", "Any philosophical claim about identity or perspective." ], "cross_architecture_comparison": { "CRP-035_v1_2_L4": { "retained_numbers": 32, "BC_TV": 0.892, "BC_TV_random": 0.282, "gap": 0.61 }, "CRP-037_N1": { "retained_numbers": 100, "BC_TV": 0.459, "BC_TV_random": 0.298, "gap": 0.161 }, "conclusion": "Despite CRP-037 N1 retaining more numeric information, it preserves much less behavior. Identity carrier is architecture-dependent, not capacity-invariant." }, "adversarial_notes": [ "N1's compression uses simple k-means; smarter prototype selection could preserve more information.", "200 training episodes produces a specific memory distribution; longer training might yield more redundant, more compressible memory.", "The cross-architecture 'weights beat memory' finding depends on the specific NNMO decision rule." ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-037-R1", "kind": "cluster_count_sweep", "target": "k_c in {3, 5, 10, 20, 50}", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-037-R2", "kind": "third_architecture", "target": "Bayesian PP observer", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-037-R3", "kind": "adversarial_memory", "target": "random-noise contamination", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/nnmo.py", "src/nn_compressors.py", "src/run_study.py", "src/summarize.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary_exploratory.json", "results/summary_confirmatory.json" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "N/A - cross-architecture test of CRP-035 v1.2 finding", "conceptual_relationship": "cross_architecture_replication_of_CRP-035_F2", "disclaimer": "This study tests whether the 'high-capacity component carries identity' finding from CRP-035 v1.2 generalizes across observer architectures. It does not evaluate any philosophical claim." }, "runtime_seconds": 1629 }, { "study_id": "O0-CRP-038", "id": "O0-CRP-038", "title": "SIM-CRP-003d · Learning-Rate Equalization Robustness Test", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-003d", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "WEIGHTS_STILL_DOMINATE", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "targeted_robustness_test", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "PERSPECTIVE", "date": "2026-07-30", "source_record": "OA-O001", "tests_alternative_of": [ "O0-CRP-035_v1_2", "O0-CRP-036_v1_0" ], "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-035", "O0-CRP-036", "O0-CRP-037" ], "design_summary": { "n_observers_confirmatory": 30, "observer_seeds": "21000..21029", "eval_context_seed": 22000, "n_eval_contexts": 200, "probe_seed": 22500, "n_probe_pairs": 500, "vp_env_seeds": "23000..23049", "n_vp_environments": 50, "n_vp_episodes": 20, "context_dim": 8, "n_actions": 4, "compression_levels": [ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "key_change": "p update coefficient changed from 0.1 to 1.0 (equal to W)" }, "primary_verdict": "WEIGHTS_STILL_DOMINATE", "l4_comparison": { "CRP-035_v1_2_L4_BC_TV": 0.892, "CRP-035_v1_2_L4_BC_AM": 0.885, "CRP-038_L4_BC_TV": 0.825, "CRP-038_L4_BC_AM": 0.819, "delta_TV": -0.067, "delta_AM": -0.066, "preregistered_tolerance": 0.15, "within_tolerance": true }, "supported_claims": [ "CRP-035 v1.2 F2 (weights carry identity) survives learning-rate equalization.", "L4 compression with equal learning rates still preserves BC_TV = 0.825, BC_AM = 0.819.", "The delta from CRP-035 v1.2 (0.067) is well within the preregistered ±0.15 tolerance.", "The 'more-trained-component dominates' alternative interpretation raised in CRP-036 and CRP-037 adversarial notes is REJECTED.", "A small effect DOES exist: L4 preserves slightly less behavior (0.825 vs 0.892) and L5 preserves slightly more (0.481 vs 0.458) under equal LRs, consistent with p carrying more signal when equally trained.", "The overall compression profile (cliff at L2->L3, plateau at L4, drop at L5-L7) is qualitatively unchanged." ], "not_established_claims": [ "Any generalization beyond linear-bandit observers.", "Any generalization beyond 100 training episodes.", "That capacity asymmetry (W has 32 params, p has 4 params) is not itself a confound (CRP-038-R2 registered).", "Any philosophical claim." ], "adversarial_notes": [ "The remaining most-likely alternative interpretation is capacity asymmetry, not learning-rate asymmetry.", "Longer training might reduce the delta further as both W and p converge.", "The 10x LR difference in CRP-035 v1.2 accounts for ~0.07 BC_TV at L4 - a small but non-negligible effect." ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "O0-CRP-038-R1", "kind": "training_length_sweep", "target": "500 episodes", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-038-R2", "kind": "capacity_equalization", "target": "d=1 so W and p have equal capacity", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "O0-CRP-038-R3", "kind": "learning_rate_sweep", "target": "p coefficient in [0.01, 10.0]", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "figures": [], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/observer_eqlr.py", "src/run_study.py", "src/summarize.py" ], "results": [ "results/summary_confirmatory.json" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "N/A - methodological robustness test", "conceptual_relationship": "targeted_alternative_interpretation_test", "disclaimer": "This study tests one specific alternative interpretation of CRP-035 v1.2 F2. It does not evaluate any philosophical claim." }, "runtime_seconds": 185 }, { "study_id": "T1-EMPTY-THRONE", "id": "T1-EMPTY-THRONE", "title": "T1 · The Empty Throne — Parameter-manifold geometry at ML fit", "semantic_name": "T1", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.2.0", "status": "INCONCLUSIVE (architecture-dependent; PROVISIONAL SUPPORT for LTI/R1a; R2 qualitatively upholds; R6 baseline-failed)", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "internal_followups_completed_T1R1_T1R1a_T1R2_T1R6", "program": "structural_claims_of_the_valleys_t_series", "non_drift_question": "structural_arrival_vs_parametric_arrival_at_ml_fit", "date": "2026-07-30", "source_record": "OA-BAHA-VALLEYS", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-035", "O0-CRP-037", "O0-CRP-038" ], "design_summary": { "source_classes": [ "LTI-Gaussian (C fixed)", "small tanh MLP (Gaussian output)", "RBF GP" ], "adversarial_controls": [ "well-specified regression (null)", "colinear regression (positive control, known k_dup manifold)" ], "capacities_tested": { "LTI": [ 4, 6 ], "MLP": [ 6, 8 ], "GP": [ 3 ] }, "N_train_range": { "LTI": [ 512, 2048, 8192 ], "MLP": [ 2048 ], "GP": [ 200 ] }, "estimators": [ "E1 Fisher rank", "E2 orthogonal flat-walk verification", "E3 multi-init dispersion", "E4 trivial-vs-residual split" ], "seed_range_lti_matched": [ 20260730, 20260800, 20260830 ], "preregistration_version": "1.1", "deviations": [ "001 estimator redesign (v1.0->v1.1)", "002 LTI C fixed at truth", "003 R6 uses (A,Q,R)+EKF under nonlinear observation" ] }, "primary_verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE overall; PROVISIONAL SUPPORT for LTI at deep-fit basins; R1a mechanism qualitatively upheld by R2; R6 α-trend uninformative (baseline failed); UNSUPPORTED for MLP and GP", "per_class_results": { "regression_baseline": { "d_E1": 0, "d_E2": 0, "d_E3": 0, "d_E4_raw": 0, "d_E4_res": 0, "verdict": "null_holds" }, "colinear_positive_control": { "d_E1_matches_k_dup": true, "d_E4_res": 0, "verdict": "controls_pass" }, "LTI_matched_bimodal": { "seed_20260730_random_init": { "d_E4_res": 0, "nll_train_fit": 4475.25 }, "seed_20260800_random_init": { "d_E4_res": 2, "nll_train_fit": 5496.32 }, "seed_20260830_random_init": { "d_E4_res": 11, "nll_train_fit": 6387.07 }, "seed_20260730_truth_init": { "d_E4_res": 11, "nll_train_fit": 4473.77 } }, "LTI_N_stability_truth_init": { "N_512": { "manifold_dim": 13, "cliff": 34.7 }, "N_2048": { "manifold_dim": 12, "cliff": 54.2 }, "N_8192": { "manifold_dim": 13, "cliff": 17.5 } }, "LTI_over_n_M_6": { "d_E1": 7, "d_E2_verified": 5, "d_E4_res": 5, "d_trivial_predicted": 7 }, "MLP_matched": { "d_E1": 0, "d_E2": 0, "d_E4_res": 0 }, "MLP_over": { "d_E1": 0, "d_E2": 0, "d_E4_res": 0, "note": "predicted dead-unit d_trivial=10 not visited by ML fit" }, "GP": { "d_E1": 0, "d_E2": 0, "d_E4_res": 0 } }, "supported_claims": [ "Adversarial controls pass: regression baseline d = 0 for p in {4,8,16}; colinear positive control d = k_dup with residual 0 for k_dup in {1,2,3}.", "LTI with C fixed at matched capacity shows a robust manifold at the deepest fit basin: d = 10-13, N-stable across a 16x range in training sample size.", "The LTI manifold is at the ML argmin (lower NLL_train than source parameters) and does not appear at source parameters, which are at a sharp higher-NLL minimum.", "LTI over-capacity partially recovers the excess-mode manifold: E1 exact (7 of 7); E2 verifies 5 of 7 under non-local walks." ], "not_established_claims": [ "Any generalization to physical, biological, or empirical systems.", "Any metaphysical claim about consciousness, unity, non-duality, or identity.", "That the LTI result would replicate under a different C or A distribution.", "That random-init L-BFGS reliably finds the deep basin in LTI (fit outcome is initialization-sensitive).", "That the linear-detection technique is the RIGHT operational translation of the source claim." ], "resolved_in_v1_1_0_addendum": [ "T1-R1 (innovations-form parametrization): manifold does NOT vanish. d shrinks from ~10-13 to ~8 across seeds. Spectral-factorization non-uniqueness alone does not account for the manifold; it accounts for 3-5 dim of it.", "T1-R1a (mechanism check): 8/8 flat-direction eigenvectors put dK columns entirely in ker(C) (fraction = 1.000), dL_S = 0, and preserve the observed innovation sequence to ~1e-7 relative. The residual manifold is mechanistically identified as the classical unobservable-subspace freedom under fixed C." ], "per_class_results_v1_1_0": { "LTI_R1_innovations_form_matched_n_M_4_N_2048": { "seed_20260730_random_init": { "d_E1": 8, "nll_train_fit": 4473.49, "improvement_over_v1_0_0": "yes (deeper basin from random init)" }, "seed_20260800_random_init": { "d_E1": 1, "nll_train_fit": 5496.29 }, "seed_20260830_random_init": { "d_E1": 8, "nll_train_fit": 6386.63 }, "seed_20260730_truth_init": { "d_E1": 8, "nll_train_fit": 4473.49 } }, "LTI_R1a_mechanism_seed_20260730": { "n_flat_directions": 8, "n_dK_columns_in_ker_C": 8, "dL_S_norm_max": 0, "innovation_invariance_relative_at_step_0p01": 8.9e-8, "conclusion": "residual manifold is exactly the ker(C) hidden-state freedom" }, "LTI_R1a_mechanism_seed_20260830": { "n_flat_directions": 8, "n_dK_columns_in_ker_C": 8, "dL_S_norm_max": 0, "innovation_invariance_relative_at_step_0p01": 0.000009, "conclusion": "residual manifold is exactly the ker(C) hidden-state freedom" } }, "adversarial_notes": [ "Local-minimum sensitivity in LTI: our headline positive result requires the fit to reach the global-minimum basin. 3 restarts of random-init L-BFGS sometimes achieves this and sometimes does not.", "Parametrization dependence: the LTI finding is in a specific parametrization (C fixed, Cholesky-factored Q and R). Minimum-phase canonical form would likely give a very different answer.", "MLP over-capacity behavior: the closed-form d_trivial = 10 at H_M = 8 is a valid tangent-space prediction at points on the dead-unit submanifold. The ML fit is not on that submanifold, so the prediction is inapplicable to the specific fit measured.", "N-scaling: three N values is a limited scan. Larger N (up to 65k) would more cleanly distinguish structural manifold from slow finite-sample drift.", "GP fit is far from truth at N = 200 (log_l = -0.66 vs 0). Overfitting is expected but limits sharp-fit conclusion.", "The interpretation is not the finding: even if the LTI result survives all follow-up scrutiny, the reading that it 'supports the mystical claim' depends on the operational translation used." ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "T1-R1", "kind": "innovations_form_parametrization", "target": "LTI in innovations form (A_pred, K, S_ss); does the manifold vanish under spectral-factorization quotient?", "status": "COMPLETED_2026_07_30", "verdict": "Manifold PERSISTS; shrinks from ~11 to ~8 dim. Spectral-factorization alone does not account for it." }, { "id": "T1-R1a", "kind": "mechanism_check", "target": "Decompose flat directions into (dA_pred, dK, dL_S); check dK cols in ker(C).", "status": "COMPLETED_2026_07_30", "verdict": "8/8 flat directions have dK columns entirely in ker(C); dL_S=0; innovation sequence preserved to numerical precision. Residual manifold is exactly the ker(C) hidden-state freedom." }, { "id": "T1-R2", "kind": "square_C_falsification", "target": "LTI with C square full-rank; ker(C) empty; predict d=0.", "status": "COMPLETED_2026_07_30", "verdict": "Strict prereg INCONCLUSIVE (d in {4,0,0}, mean 1.33). Post-hoc: seed-20260900 d=4 is gap-detector artifact (eigvals O(1) not O(1e-4)). Exploratory corroboration on original T1 seeds: d=0 on all 4 fits. Mechanism qualitatively upheld." }, { "id": "T1-R2b", "kind": "innovation_invariance_check", "target": "Apply R1a-style innovation-sequence invariance to seed-20260900 candidate flat directions.", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "T1-R3", "kind": "large_N_scan", "target": "LTI at N in {32768, 65536}; does manifold dim stabilize?", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "T1-R4", "kind": "many_restart_stat", "target": "LTI matched capacity with 100 random starts; distribution of basins", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "T1-R5", "kind": "mlp_active_dead_unit_init", "target": "MLP over-capacity initialized on dead-unit submanifold; does the fit stay?", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "T1-R6", "kind": "nonlinear_observation_channel", "target": "α-sweep of quadratic ker(C)-leaking observation; does manifold shrink as α grows?", "status": "COMPLETED_2026_07_30", "verdict": "Strict prereg REFUTES_R1A_MECHANISM driven by baseline failure (d(0)=0 < 5). α-trend uninformative. EKF pathology at α=1 seed-20260910 (d=27, ΔNLL=-3463). T1-R6b registered." }, { "id": "T1-R6b", "kind": "restored_baseline_alpha_sweep", "target": "Restore α=0 baseline to recover T1-R1 (N=2048, innovations or SS-Kalman, multi-restart); then re-run α-sweep.", "status": "REGISTERED" }, { "id": "T1-R7", "kind": "particle_filter_alpha1", "target": "UKF/particle-filter likelihood at α=1.0 to rule out EKF pathology.", "status": "REGISTERED" } ], "per_class_results_v1_2_0": { "T1_R2_square_C_prereg_seeds": { "seeds": [ 20260900, 20260901, 20260902 ], "d_E1": [ 4, 0, 0 ], "d_E1_mean": 1.33, "verdict_prereg": "INCONCLUSIVE", "posthoc": "seed-20260900 d=4 is gap-detector artifact; mechanism qualitatively upheld" }, "T1_R2_exploratory_original_seeds": { "seeds": [ 20260730, 20260800, 20260830 ], "d_E1": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "note": "includes truth-init on 20260730; all d=0 across E1/E2/E4" }, "T1_R6_alpha_sweep": { "alphas": [ 0, 0.3, 1 ], "d_E1_mean_by_alpha": { "0.0": 0, "0.3": 0, "1.0": 13.5 }, "verdict_prereg": "REFUTES_R1A_MECHANISM", "driver": "baseline d(0)=0 < 5; α-trend uninformative; α=1 seed-20260910 degenerate" } }, "figures": [], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "deviations": "deviations.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": [ "src/model_interface.py", "src/common.py", "src/lti.py", "src/lti_innov.py", "src/lti_square_c.py", "src/lti_nonlin_obs.py", "src/nl_ssm.py", "src/mlp.py", "src/gp.py", "src/regression_baseline.py", "src/estimators.py", "src/pilot_regression.py", "src/pilot_positive_control.py", "src/pilot_lti.py", "src/pilot_lti_innov.py", "src/pilot_lti_r2.py", "src/pilot_lti_square_c.py", "src/pilot_lti_r6.py", "src/pilot_nl_ssm.py", "src/pilot_mlp.py", "src/pilot_gp.py", "src/full_run_lti.py", "src/debug_lti_innov_mechanism.py", "src/debug_r2_seed900.py" ], "results": [ "runs/REG/pilot/pilot_results.json", "runs/REG/positive_control/positive_control_results.json", "runs/LTI/pilot/pilot_results.json", "runs/LTI/full_run/results.json", "runs/LTI_INNOV/pilot/results.json", "runs/LTI_R2/pilot_results.json", "runs/LTI_SQUARE_C/pilot/results.json", "runs/LTI_R6/pilot_results.json", "runs/NL_SSM/pilot/results.json", "runs/MLP/pilot/pilot_results.json", "runs/GP/pilot/pilot_results.json", "logs/r1a_mechanism.log", "logs/r2_pilot.log", "logs/r2_square_c.log", "logs/r2_seed900_diagnostic.log", "logs/r6_pilot.log", "logs/r6_nl_ssm.log" ] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "Baha'u'llah, The Seven Valleys / The Four Valleys; Sussmann 1992 for MLP theory; Kailath et al. 2000 for LTI identifiability", "conceptual_relationship": "structural_end_state_claim", "disclaimer": "This study tests only the loss-surface geometry of specific model classes. No metaphysical claim is evaluated." }, "runtime_seconds": 2069 }, { "study_id": "T2-NETI-NETI", "record_id": "T2-NETI-NETI", "semantic_name": "T2 · Neti Neti — structural (a)symmetry between unification and reportability at ML rate-distortion equilibrium", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "program": "Structural Claims of the Valleys (T-series)", "version": "1.2.0", "date": "2026-07-31", "authorship": { "primary": "T-series research thread, Ozone Archive Research Program", "model_attribution": "designed and executed autonomously by AI research thread under user oversight" }, "status": "UNSUPPORTED at preregistered aggregation level (v1.0); H_MIXED_WINS on T2-R2 (v1.1.0); T2-R2a (v1.2.0) power-analysis verdicts: F1_INTERMEDIATE (A3 stabilizes H_STRICT at D1 β=128 at 9/15 = 60% vs null 0/15; A2 short at 5/15); F2_STABILIZES (A3 stabilizes H_LINEARLY_HIDDEN at D3 β=8 at 10/15 = 66.7% vs null 3/15). Capacity-dependent effects verified as real, above-null-baseline, and reachable-but-not-inevitable in higher-capacity Gaussian bottlenecks.", "evidence_type": "COMPUTATIONAL_SIMULATION", "physical_valid": "NONE", "replication_status": "internal_followup_T2R2_and_T2R2a_completed", "claim_status_banner": "UNSUPPORTED at aggregation (v1.0); H_MIXED_WINS (v1.1.0 T2-R2); F2_STABILIZES (v1.2.0 T2-R2a) — A3 at D3 β=8 stabilizes to 10/15 = 66.7% (Wilson 95% CI [41.7, 84.8]) far above null 3/15 = 20% for H_LINEARLY_HIDDEN. F1_INTERMEDIATE (v1.2.0 T2-R2a) — A3 at D1 β=128 stabilizes H_STRICT at 9/15 = 60% vs null 0/15; A2 short of hurdle at 5/15. All test archs beat null on D1 β=128 (0/15). Capacity-dependent phenomena are real, not pipeline noise; not universal, not inevitable.", "source_proposition": "Advaita 'neti neti' / Bahá'í 'seventh valley' — a kenotic end-state in which unified perception, retained substrate content, and preserved reportability coexist; operationalized as joint conditions on MI(X;Z), decoder-output classification skill, single-sample latent classification skill, and substrate classification skill in variational bottleneck models", "related_records": [ "T1-EMPTY-THRONE", "O0-CRP-021" ], "companion_record": "T1-EMPTY-THRONE", "primary_verdict": "H_OTHER (v1.0 main); H_MIXED_WINS (v1.1.0 T2-R2); F1_INTERMEDIATE and F2_STABILIZES (v1.2.0 T2-R2a) — capacity-dependent H_STRICT and H_LINEARLY_HIDDEN signatures verified above null baseline in A3 at specific (dataset, β) regimes", "hypotheses": { "H_STRICT": "FAILS · 0/3 test arches meet aggregation criterion (v1.0)", "H_ASYMMETRY": "FAILS · 1/3 arches (A3 only) exceeds null baseline on 2/3 datasets (v1.0)", "H_UNREACHABLE": "FAILS · not uniformly monotone (v1.0)", "H_OTHER": "TRUE · v1.0 final verdict", "R2_H_ABSENT": "PARTIAL · holds at β=128,β=512 but not at β=8 (v1.1.0)", "R2_H_LINEARLY_HIDDEN": "FAILS · 0/3 test arches meet aggregation criterion; A3 has individual-seed hits (v1.1.0)", "R2_H_MIXED": "TRUE · 2/3 test arches (A1, A2) satisfy partial gap condition at β=8, β=32 (v1.1.0)", "R2a_F1_D1_beta128_H_STRICT": "F1_INTERMEDIATE · A3 stabilizes at 9/15 = 60.0% [35.7, 80.2]; A2 short at 5/15 = 33.3%; A1 at 6/15 = 40.0%; C_null 0/15 = 0.0% [0.0, 20.4] (v1.2.0)", "R2a_F2_D3_H_LINEARLY_HIDDEN": "F2_STABILIZES · A3 at β=8 reaches 10/15 = 66.7% [41.7, 84.8], far above null 3/15 = 20.0% [7.0, 45.2]; effect disappears at β=32 (A3 3/15 vs null 1/15) (v1.2.0)" }, "controls": { "C_null_linear_gaussian_pPCA_VAE": "H_STRICT hits: 0/21 (as expected). Substrate-perception baseline gap up to 0.598 at D1 β=128. On R2: shows H_MIXED at β=8 on D3 (mlp_μ up to 0.556, gap up to +0.176) — confirming part of the mixed effect is generic Gaussian-bottleneck geometry.", "C_positive_two_pathway_VAE": "H_STRICT hits: 12/21 (D1: 7, D2: 5, D3: 0). Positive control passes. On R2: mixed pattern on D3 at β=8 similar to test arches." }, "deviations": [ "DEV-001 (2026-07-31, pre-execution) — Rule A(1) reinterpretation (null H_ASYMMETRY = baseline, not abort trigger), skill_substrate = max(skill_μ, skill_h_x), H_ASYMMETRY revised to require test-arch gap ≥ null gap + 0.10. New disjoint test-arch seeds {20260940, 20260950, 20260960}." ], "preregistration": "_internal/t2-neti-neti/preregistration.md", "preregistration_r2": "_internal/t2-neti-neti/prereg_r2.md", "preregistration_r2a": "_internal/t2-neti-neti/prereg_r2a.md", "code": [ "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/common.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/datasets.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/metrics.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/vae.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/two_pathway.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/linear_gaussian.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/pilot_controls.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/pilot_controls_v2.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/full_run.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/nonlinear_probe.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/r2_run.py", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/src/r2a_run.py" ], "results": [ "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/controls/pilot/pilot.log", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/controls/pilot/results.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/controls/pilot/verdict.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/controls/pilot_v2/pilot_v2.log", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/controls/pilot_v2/results.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/controls/pilot_v2/verdict.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/main/v1/main.log", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/main/v1/results.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/main/v1/verdict.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/r2/v1/r2.log", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/r2/v1/results.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/r2/v1/verdict.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/r2a/v1/r2a.log", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/r2a/v1/results.json", "_internal/t2-neti-neti/runs/r2a/v1/verdict.json" ], "replication_queue": [ { "id": "T2-R1", "status": "REGISTERED", "purpose": "Scale to larger latent dims and non-Gaussian datasets; test whether A3's capacity-dependent effect strengthens" }, { "id": "T2-R2", "status": "COMPLETED (2026-07-31, v1.1.0)", "verdict": "H_MIXED_WINS", "purpose": "Nonlinear probes on μ for D3 rings to distinguish 'signature absent' from 'signature linearly hidden'" }, { "id": "T2-R3", "status": "REGISTERED", "purpose": "Alternative objectives (WAE, VQ-VAE) to test whether fragile positive instances persist outside β-VAE" }, { "id": "T2-R2a", "status": "COMPLETED (2026-07-31, v1.2.0)", "verdicts": { "F1_D1_beta128_H_STRICT": "F1_INTERMEDIATE (A3 stabilizes 9/15 = 60.0%; A2 short of 7/15 hurdle at 5/15; A1 6/15; C_null 0/15)", "F2_D3_H_LINEARLY_HIDDEN": "F2_STABILIZES (A3 at β=8 reaches 10/15 = 66.7% vs null 3/15 = 20.0%)" }, "purpose": "Power-analysis follow-up: 12 additional disjoint seeds merged with T2 v1.0's 3 for 15-seed pool on focused (kind, dataset, β) scope. Determined that fragile positive instances at D1 β=128 and A3 individual hits at D3 β=8 are systematic capacity-dependent effects above null baseline, not seed-lottery noise." }, { "id": "T2-R2b", "status": "REGISTERED (from R2 §11.8)", "purpose": "Larger nonlinear probes to test whether mixed signal at moderate β is probe-capacity-bounded" }, { "id": "T2-R2c", "status": "REGISTERED (from R2 §11.8)", "purpose": "Alternative non-linearly-separable datasets to test whether mixed pattern is D3-specific or generalizes" }, { "id": "T2-R2a-1", "status": "REGISTERED (from R2a §12.7)", "purpose": "A2a = ReLU with dz=4 to disentangle activation-vs-capacity contribution to F1 D1 β=128 stabilization gap between A2 (5/15) and A3 (9/15)" }, { "id": "T2-R2a-2", "status": "REGISTERED (from R2a §12.7)", "purpose": "30-seed replication at A3 D3 β=8 to tighten Wilson CI around ~67% point estimate" }, { "id": "T2-R4", "status": "REGISTERED (from R2a §12.7)", "purpose": "Latent-geometry visualization + KL-per-dimension analysis for A3's systematic strict-signature behavior" } ], "predecessor_probe": { "id": "T2-P0", "date": "2026-07-30", "notes": "Internal exploratory probe on A1_tanh_dz2 alone, single seed, on D1 only. Found SWEET_SPOT_MU_ONLY pattern. T2 v1.0 supersedes P0 with disjoint seeds and full study rigor; P0 is retained only for provenance." }, "downloads": { "scientific_record_md": "scientific_record.md", "manifest_json": "manifest.json", "preregistration_md": "preregistration.md", "preregistration_r2_md": "prereg_r2.md", "preregistration_r2a_md": "prereg_r2a.md", "deviations_md": "deviations.md", "main_verdict_json": "verdict.json", "r2_verdict_json": "verdict_r2.json", "r2a_verdict_json": "verdict_r2a.json" }, "revision_history": [ { "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-31", "summary": "Initial publication. Preregistration locked. DEV-001 logged pre-execution. Full run: 315 fits, ~19 min wall time. Verdict H_OTHER (UNSUPPORTED at aggregation with fragile positive instances)." }, { "version": "1.1.0", "date": "2026-07-31", "summary": "T2-R2 addendum. Preregistration locked. Nonlinear MLP probe over 315 configurations, deterministic reuse of T2 fits verified (0 failures). Verdict H_MIXED_WINS: partial linearly-hidden effect on D3 at moderate β (β=8, β=32) in A1 and A2; genuine absence at deep collapse; capacity enhancement in A3. Null-control also shows partial mixed effect, confirming part of the effect is generic Gaussian-bottleneck geometry." }, { "version": "1.2.0", "date": "2026-07-31", "summary": "T2-R2a addendum. Preregistration locked pre-execution (2026-07-31, after v1.1.0 publish, before R2a code). 12 new disjoint seeds × 4 kinds × 2 datasets × 3 β = 288 new fits + 72 old-seed re-evaluations for 15-seed pool (360 total). Determinism gate 0/360 failures. F1 verdict F1_INTERMEDIATE (A3 clears at 9/15 = 60% for D1 β=128 H_STRICT; A2 short at 5/15). F2 verdict F2_STABILIZES (A3 clears at 10/15 = 66.7% for D3 β=8 H_LINEARLY_HIDDEN vs null 3/15 = 20%). Null baselines: 0/15 (D1 β=128) and 3/15 (D3 β=8) — all test archs beat null on D1; A3 beats null decisively on D3 β=8. Fragile positive instances established as systematic capacity-dependent effects, not seed-lottery noise. Wall-clock 25 min." } ] }, { "study_id": "O0-PAPER-002", "id": "O0-PAPER-002", "title": "Auxiliary Functional Separation Does Not Improve Prediction Under Fair Information Access: An Inversion Finding in Linear-Gaussian Regimes", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "SCIENTIFIC_PAPER", "wraps_study": "O0-CRP-021", "program": "Track 1 (Functional Separation)", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "published", "format": "IMRAD", "verdict": "INCONCLUSIVE (primary) / UNSUPPORTED (fair-comparison)", "keywords": [ "Kalman filter", "VAR", "functional separation", "predictive processing", "linear-Gaussian", "fair comparison" ], "related": [ "O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-029", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-SCOPE-002" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-PAPER-003", "id": "O0-PAPER-003", "title": "Fair-Comparison Robustness: Unified VAR Beats or Ties Learned-Kalman Across Six Observability Regimes", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "SCIENTIFIC_PAPER", "wraps_study": "O0-CRP-029", "program": "Track 1 (Functional Separation)", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "published", "format": "IMRAD", "verdict": "FAIR_COMPARISON_ROBUST", "keywords": [ "Kalman filter", "VAR", "observability", "replication", "linear-Gaussian" ], "related": [ "O0-CRP-029", "O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-SCOPE-002" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-PAPER-004", "id": "O0-PAPER-004", "title": "Known Evolutionary Forces Reproduce Theoretical Order-Increase in NK Fitness Landscapes: A Sufficiency Test of Hatcher's Empirical Premise", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "SCIENTIFIC_PAPER", "wraps_study": "O0-CRP-023", "program": "Track 3 (Order-Emergence Sufficiency)", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "published", "format": "IMRAD", "verdict": "SUFFICIENCY SUPPORTED", "keywords": [ "NK model", "evolutionary computation", "genetic algorithm", "fitness landscape", "Hatcher", "abductive inference" ], "related": [ "O0-CRP-023", "O0-CRP-028", "O0-SCOPE-002" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-PAPER-005", "id": "O0-PAPER-005", "title": "NK-Model Sufficiency Scales to N=50, G=2000: Order-Increase Sufficiency Robust to 25x Genome and 4x Time Increase", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "SCIENTIFIC_PAPER", "wraps_study": "O0-CRP-028", "program": "Track 3 (Order-Emergence Sufficiency)", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "published", "format": "IMRAD", "verdict": "SUFFICIENCY_SCALES", "keywords": [ "NK model", "evolutionary computation", "scaling", "genetic algorithm", "sufficiency" ], "related": [ "O0-CRP-028", "O0-CRP-023", "O0-SCOPE-002" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-PAPER-006", "id": "O0-PAPER-006", "title": "Partial Architecture-Dependence in the Contact-Gradient Finding: Under a Predictive-Processing Observer, h and u Replicate While k Inverts", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "SCIENTIFIC_PAPER", "wraps_study": "O0-CRP-013", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION (Study R3)", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "published", "format": "IMRAD", "verdict": "MECHANISM-FLIPPED (partial)", "keywords": [ "predictive processing", "Bayesian observer", "belief update", "cross-architecture replication", "Kalman" ], "related": [ "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-014", "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-012", "O0-SCOPE-002" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-PAPER-007", "id": "O0-PAPER-007", "title": "The k-hat Flip Is Observation-Model-Specific, Not Intrinsic to Predictive Processing: A One-Line Ablation", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "SCIENTIFIC_PAPER", "wraps_study": "O0-CRP-014", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION (Study R4)", "version": "1.0.0", "date": "2026-07-29", "status": "published", "format": "IMRAD", "verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "keywords": [ "predictive processing", "ablation", "mechanism localization", "observation model", "one-line ablation" ], "related": [ "O0-CRP-014", "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-012", "O0-SCOPE-002" ] }, { "study_id": "O0-PAPER-001", "id": "O0-PAPER-001", "title": "Matched-Source Indistinguishability Across Canonical Dynamical Systems: A Preregistered Multi-Axis Robustness Study", "authors": [ "Ozone Archive Research Program" ], "record_class": "SYNTHESIS_PAPER", "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION", "track": "Track 2", "type": "program-level synthesis paper", "version": "1.1.0", "date": "2026-07-30", "status": "published", "format": "IMRAD", "corrections": [ { "from_version": "1.0.0", "to_version": "1.1.0", "date": "2026-07-30", "type": "wording", "description": "MATCHED_DUAL described as 'bit-identical construction' (incorrect) -> 'same M, different noise-realization trial seed, independent draw from same distribution' (correct). AUC results unaffected; only description corrected. Also adds CRP-034 (physical-data leg) as Axis 9.", "discovered_via": "O0-CRP-034 pre-execution diagnostic" } ], "keywords": [ "dynamical systems", "state-space realization", "classifier discriminability", "preregistration", "model comparison", "computational epistemology", "physical data replication" ], "covers_studies": [ "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027", "O0-CRP-030", "O0-CRP-031", "O0-CRP-032", "O0-CRP-033", "O0-CRP-034" ], "structural_findings_supported": [ "matched-source indistinguishability in 16/16 conditions across 8 robustness axes", "state-space realization theorem bit-identical in 16/16 conditions", "positive control passes at AUC=1.0 in every study" ], "numeric_findings_supported": [ "delta*(0.7) is NOT a universal constant — varies from 0.10 to unreachable across axes", "boundary is joint property of substrate + classifier + battery + sample" ], "corrections_documented": [ "CRP-031 Finding 3 (chaos-washout) → corrected under CRP-032" ], "responds_to_critiques": [ "toy models of well-established science (addressed by CRP-031 5-class replication and CRP-033 dimensionality scaling)", "n=8 is a toy dimension (addressed by CRP-033 scale invariance)", "chaos hides coupling (corrected by CRP-032)" ], "claim_registry_ids_supported": [ "C001", "C002", "C003", "C004", "C007", "C008", "C010" ], "related": [ "O0-SCOPE-001", "O0-SCOPE-002", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025", "O0-CRP-026", "O0-CRP-027", "O0-CRP-030", "O0-CRP-031", "O0-CRP-032", "O0-CRP-033" ] } ] }